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| lunedì 14 novembre 2011 | 1711 per oggi stacco, arrivederci a domani | | | |
| per oggi stacco, arrivederci a domani | |
| 1524 unicredit annuncia aumento di capitale 7.5 bn | | | |
| unicredit annuncia aumento di capitale 7.5 bn
dopo la sospensione apre tratta -6.67%
dai massimi di oggi, -13% | |
| 1537 last week, ECB has bought only 4 bn bonds | | | |
| last week, in the biggest mess I saw on italian bonds, ECB has bought ONLY 4 bn bonds under the SMP (securities market programme).
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| 1423 general election in spain next week end | | | |
| next week end there are general election in spain .
zapatero is going to lose, the winner will be the right party, with a strong majority.
today 10 year bonos reached for the first time 6%, and the ECB has been seen buying bonos. | |
| 1421 possibile testa e spalla sul bund | | | |
| ecb is buying btp on the secondary markets. that s why btp suddenly jumped from 92.9 to 93.40 | |
| the outcome of the auction of btp 2016 has been announced:
3bn at 6.29%, bid cover 1.469
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| 11.00 EUR EUR Eu-Zone Indus. Production s.a. (M) -2.0 -2.3% 1.4% => better than expected | | | |
| 11.00 EUR EUR Eu-Zone Indus. Production s.a. (M) -2.0 -2.3% 1.4% => better than expected | |
| 11.00 EUR EUR Eu-Zone Indus. Production w.d.a. (Y) 3.6% 6.0%
11.00 EUR EUR Eu-Zone Indus. Production s.a. (M) -2.3% 1.4% | |
| 1009 seminario gratuito di Giovanni Cuniberti a Milano e TOrino | | | |
| A Torino il 17/11 ore 15, e Milano, 18/11 venerdi ore 15, un mio caro amico e collaboratore, Giovanni Cuniberti, presenta un seminario dal titolo
L'APPROCCIO RIVOLUZIONARIO PER LA GESTIONE DEI PROPRI INVESTIMENTI.
Questo è la locandina dell'incontro.
LINK http://www.thehawktrader.com/ita/images/AltaScuolaFinanza.jpg
Giovanni è una persona molto seria e preparata, consiglio vivamente a chi può di presenziare al seminario. | |
| 959 wrong calender this morning => errata corrige | | | |
| I beg your pardon : this morning I posted a wrond calender.
This is the correct one. :
the most important event is btps auction : 4.75 9/2016, 1.5-3bn : the amount is pretty low, easily to be absorbed. The result is expected, as usual, at 1105-1110, books are closed few minutes before 11, and by 11oo the bids must be submitted telematically to MinTesoro
8.45 EUR EUR Fr Current Account (euros) -- -2.4B
11.00 EUR EUR Eu-Zone Indus. Production w.d.a. (Y) 3.6% 6.0%
11.00 EUR EUR Eu-Zone Indus. Production s.a. (M) -2.3% 1.4% | |
| 937 some profit takin after the initial rally | | | |
| some profit taking appears on equities after the initial rally.
dax has closed the gapup , ftmib not yet.
there are no news behind this downward move.
I think that the trend for equities esp. italian, is on the upside. Monti and Papademos could save europe but they still have to ask votes to old parties to support the reforms. The old parties are alwaya the same ones as before.
International investors , terrified by a scary european situation (the debt crisis started more than 18 months ago, and so far has only worsened...), need to see proves that these PM can rule effectively.
Next week we have witnessed a relief rally : a heavy short covering rally, surprised by a political reply much faster than forecast.
Now that some short positions have been closed, the real money will wait for a reality check of the new governments :1. the composition of the govies, 2. the vote in the parliament, and 3. the presentation of the programmes : these will be the fundamental steps that will persuade them that a new path of italy and greece is on track.
I expect then some pullbacks but these pullbacks will be a good opportunity to buy.
The next major steps indicatored above 1-2-3 will be prepared by small rallies, and the prices will stabilize at higher level after the news. Same will happen with btp bund spread.
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| 923 all europen market left a gapup | | | |
| all europen market left a gapup
this gapup will be closed at : 2329 6070.5 15785. | |
| 904 spread btp bund at 455 from 468 close friday - ftmib | | | |
| 852 the year-end rally is still likely | | | |
| during the week end, the news came out as we were expecting, according anyway to the BEST expectations :
1. the General State Annual Report was approved saturday afternoon . it took 4 days to be approved in both houses (that s clearly opens questions : why usually it takes weeks and weeks???? boh...)
2. berlusconi eventually resigns
3. napolitano help the consultations on sunday and on sunday evening gave the mandate to form a new govt to mario monti
4. monti's govt received a good backing : PDL will back it, but for a limited period. Di Pietro's IDV changed his mind and decided to back the new govt, Lega Nord instead is at the opposition and will decide "case by case".
5. Monti's govt shd be a formed only by technocrats (and this is another extremely good news). Monti will take 2 days to form the list.
the pace at which the events are occurring is as fast as nobody could forecast. This time politics went much faster than markets : after months and months of conflicts, inactivity, pledges not followed by fact, the italian politicians, urged by an incoming italian bankrupcy and perfectly led by Pres of Rep Napolitano, managed to revert the situation in few days.
The end-of-year rally, which was considered dead after the announce of the greek referendum, could easily materialise : if the europen debt crisis cools off [si raffredda], and spread btp bund goes back to 350bp, th rally could extend to ftmib and generally on other EU equities toward year-end. | |
| very light calender today.
the most important event is btps auction : 4.75 9/2016, 1.5-3bn : the amount is pretty low, easily to be absorbed. The result is expected, as usual, at 1105-1110, books are closed few minutes before 11, and by 11oo the bids must be submitted telematically to MinTesoro
8.45 EUR ECB's Papademos, Liebscher Speak In Vienna
9.00 JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (APR) -0.014
10.30 GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (British pounds) (APR) -1.5B 17.2B
10.30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (British pounds) (APR) 1.5B 8.5B
10.30 GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (APR P) 0.009 0.01
10.30 GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (APR P) 0.125 0.128
10.30 GBP M4 Sterling Lending (British pounds) (APR P) 17.9B 12.7B
10.30 GBP CML, BBA &BSA Mortgage Lending Figures (APR) | |
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