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| giovedì 10 novembre 2011 | 1657 france-germany spread touches new high : 167bp | | | |
| the attack against euro took today a breath on italy but went ahead on france : france-germany spread touched new high at 167bp.
There were rumors of AAA france rating put under negative watch (not downgrade, but negative watch).
There were also rumor of possible downgrade of Austria, denied directly by Moody's.
it is clear that the pressure on italy triggers a vicious circle which may put in danger all EU states, France and Spain as first.
There is little to add : we just have to wait and see our political evolution.
The scenario is now clearly binary : 1 / 0. in euro, out of euro.
Markets have demonstrated ysday that when the avalanche starts falling, nobody and nothing can stop it : there are no dams who may contain the tide.
Italy cannot stay at +500 spread : or we come back at 300, or 1000 is soon to come.
for today I stop here, i ll come later for a view on the market before the close.
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| PDL : always prefers early elections but will take final decision after consulting Napolitano | | | |
| PDL : always prefers early elections but will take final decision after consulting Napolitano | |
| 1515 dipietro nn appoggia il governo tecnico | | | |
| dipietro nn appoggia il governo tecnico
se volete dire la vostra, andate sul suo sito italiadevalori.it e rispondete al sondaggio | |
| 14.30 USD USD Import Price Index (M) -0.6 0.1% 0.3%
14.30 USD USD Trade Balance -43.1 -$46.2B -$45.6B => molto basso
14.30 USD USD Initial Jobless Claims 390k 400K 397K => better than expected
14.30 USD USD Continuing Claims 3615k 3680K 3683K => better than expected
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| 1412 papademos PM in greece - official | | | |
| papademos PM in greece - official | |
| 1311 se volete concorrere a eliminare i privilegi pensionistici dei ns parlamentari, potete firmare questa petizione | | | |
|  http://www.petizionepubblica.it/?pi=P2011N14356
se volete concorrere a eliminare i privilegi pensionistici dei ns parlamentari, potete firmare questa petizione
leggo cmq su un articolo del sole24ore che c'è già una proposta di legge per dimezzare il numero dei parlamentari. Le pensioni invece non le vogliono toccare... | |
| bandk of england unchaged | | | |
| bandk of england unchagend
the quantitative easing program alwayas at 275bn pound | |
| 1253 ecb's knot says ecb can keep buying bonds ... | | | |
| ecb's knot says ecb can keep buying bonds as long as sterilization works, adding that ecb can speed up bond purchases | |
| 1238 who s against monti ? | | | |
| Among italian parties, now all back Monti : Di Pietro (IDV), Vendola, Lega Nord want early elections.
PDL yet unclear, even though there are at least 50 MPs who are against early elections, and their number is increasing,
Napolitano wants a very large govt, able to support the painful decisions it will have to take to match EU requests. Next days will be crucial to see how many deputies Monti has.
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| 1216 Mario the new leading italian name abroad | | | |
| Mario is the leading italian name abroad
superMario was only draghi, now there could be also monti.
Mario (s) do it better.
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| 1209 according to VIMA (newspaper), Papademos next PM, will swear in within hours | | | |
| according to VIMA (newspaper), Papademos next PM, will swear in within hours | |
| Monti one of the best considered Italians in the world | | | |
| 1153 permanent euro rescue fund may not be operatiing in mid 2012 | | | |
| permanent euro rescue fund may not be operatiing in mid 2012, as germany and france slashed on bond loss provisions
I think this has led to recent btp and stocks fall, and rally on bund | |
| due commenti da ecb :
nn ci si puo aspettare piu dall ecb, dipende dai governi rimuovere dubbi su certi titoli di stato.
nn è compito dell ecb intervenire sul mercato quando ci sono dubbi fondamentali sulla sostenibilità di alcuni paesi.
questo tanto per sgombrare il campo da facili entusiasmi da parte dell ecb...
ECB : there cannot be much more expcted frm ECB, it si up to governments to remove doublts about some sovereing bonds
not ecb's task to intervene in market when there are fundamental doubts about the sustainability os some countries
the markets are not that fool to hope that ECB will become the lender of last resort... all is the hands of our next government. That must be clear to all. | |
| 1122 GSachs on Repubblica : a tecno-goverment would push down the spread to 350 very quickly | | | |
| GSachs on Repubblica : a tecno-goverment would push down the spread to 350 very quickly
they agree with me :) | |
| 1121 on my portfolio, I am selling short term italian paper and buying long term one. | | | |
| on my portfolio, I am selling short term italian paper and buying long term one.
I get out of 2015-2016 paper, and bought btps 7.25 11/26, which now is yielding 7.40%
If things get ok, it s better to have 7.40% for 15 years rather than for 3 year only... | |
| 1112 rumor of an emergency ECB meeting at noon | | | |
| there are rumor, without any definite substance, that at 12noon there will be an emergency ECB meeting : the meeting should approve an unlimited SMP (securities buying program : the program under which ECB is buying italian and spanish bonds)
This rumor has been circulating for some time, so it s not new.
Same rumor appeared yesterday.
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| 1105 BOT on the grey market fell to 6% from 7.1 of one hour ago | | | |
| BOT on the grey market fell to 6% from 7.1 of one hour ago
it s now been accounced : 6.087 | |
| 1037 what does it mean 5 % yield in terms of price | | | |
| BTp at 89.70 has a yield of 7.17%.
The basis point value of 0.0684, it means that 1 bp of yield is 0.0684 of price.
If btp yield goes down to 5.00, it means 217bp : 217 * 0.0684 = 14.75 in price : from 89.70 + 14.75 = 104.45. | |
| 1021 10y btp yield is still at 7.18% | | | |
| 10y btp yield is still at 7.18%, spread at 533 vs bund
it must fall at least at 5%, 310/330 spread.
I m doing some calculations to see what 5% would mean in Btps
in the meantime, the BOT on issue today are trading at 7.30% in the grey market, but seems there are good request | |
| 1008 at 1105/1110 , outcome bot auction | | | |
| at 1105/1110 , outcome bot auction | |
| 1007 Napoli (PDL) : il governo monti è quasi fatto (monti govt is almost done) | | | |
| Napoli (PDL) : il governo monti è quasi fatto (monti govt is almost done) | |
| on monday morning, before the vote which has forced berlusconi sto step out, I was reasoning on different scenarios with a strategist of an important foreign financial institution.
According to us, a Monti govt, commtted to implement the EU letter to Italy, would have tightened the spread btp bund by 220 bp, moving it back in the area 270/300 : BTP was at 94.
220bp means Btp at 110, and bund in the 131/132 area.
Of course this is not a knee-jerck reaction after the Monti nomination. Ths first reaction could be btp at 100, where we were after the 26 oct EU summit, especially if also PDL backs the new govt.
After that a slow recovery toward higher levels.
Let s see.
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| 950 monti govt shd be built with no more than 12 ministers. all important names of the society, not politicians. | | | |
| PDL not yet decided, they still have to buy | | | |
| "PDL not yet decided", they still have to buy ...
I dont add anything else..
a buon intenditor, poche parole.. | |
| 922 Cicchietto (PDL) PDL is discussing whether to back monti govt or snap elections | | | |
| Cicchietto (PDL) PDL is discussing whether to back monti govt or snap elections.
oggd thing is that the monti govt is proposed clear and loud.
PDL will back it, in my opinion
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| FTMIB is flying
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| already released :
7.30 EUR EUR Fr C.P.I. (M) 0.2 0.2% -0.1%
8.00 EUR EUR Ger C.P.I. (M) 0.0 0.0% 0.0%
8.45 EUR EUR Fr Indus. Production (M) -1.7 -0.7% 0.5%
8.45 EUR EUR Fr Manufacturing Production (M) -1.6 -0.6% 0.7%
to follow : 10.00 1300 1430
10.00 EUR EUR It Indus. Production s.a. (M) -2.0% 4.3%
10.00 EUR EUR ECB Publishes Nov. Monthly Report -- --
10.00 EUR EUR It Indus. Production w.d.a. (Y) -1.1% 4.7%
10.00 EUR EUR It Indus. Production n.s.a. (Y) -1.1% 4.6%
11.00 EUR EUR Eu Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts -- --
13.00 GBP GBP Bank of England Rate Decision 0.5% 0.5%
13.00 GBP GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target 275B 275B
14.30 CAD CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) -0.57B -0.62B
14.30 USD USD Import Price Index (M) 0.1% 0.3%
14.30 USD USD Import Price Index (Y) 12.3% 13.4%
14.30 USD USD Trade Balance -$46.2B -$45.6B
14.30 USD USD Initial Jobless Claims 400K 397K
14.30 USD USD Continuing Claims 3680K 3683K
15.45 USD USD Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -- -53.2
20.00 USD USD Monthly Budget Statement -$105.0B -$140.4B | |
| 849 today the treasury will hold the BOT auctions as planned | | | |
| today the treasury will hold the BOT auctions as planned | |
| 836 big boys need to revert positions against italy | | | |
| italian markets are still pretty low.
My guess is that nobody was expecting such a quick resolution of the italian crisis, after monday, shen berlusconi was determined to go ahead as much as possible.
So there still too many bets opened on the downside, toward a EU breakout and an italian default.
Big boys need first to revert their positions, close the default bets, and then we will rally.
It will not happen in few minutes :they need to keep the market as low as possible for some hours to stop and revert short positions on italy and peripherals.
huge volumes on btp futures so far.
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| 657 berlusconi backs a government headed by Mario Monti | | | |
| berlusconi backs a government headed by Mario Monti
The austerity pack has been presented at the senate and will be voted by friday. Then it will move to the lower house, where it could be voted by sunday-monday.
after that berlusconi will eventually resign.
Pres of Rep Napolitano has already a governmente ready : PM will be either Giuliano Amato or Mario Monti. If PM is giuliano Amato, Monti will be Finance Minister.
There is a long list of parties backing this government : oppositions , and (as said last night) also berlusconi's party.
No more risk of early elections, and finally a true government, whose task is to implement the requests of the letter sent from EU and ECB to berlusconi (and not implemented by him... :(( ) some weeks ago.
Markets will start pricing this new evolution tnis morning, after the bloodbath of yesterday.
please note that, at this hour, no major world news has reported this news, niether did zerohedge or other english speaking blog. But these news are on all italian newspapers in front page.
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