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| mercoledì 09 novembre 2011 | 1551 devo staccare prima, arrivederci a domani | | | |
| devo staccare prima, arrivederci a domani | |
| PDL MP disagrees with early elections | | | |
| miccicchè, who controls a group of 5 MPs, close to Berlusconi, says he disagrees with early elections | |
| 1517 senate speaker will ask legislators to pass stability law by end of week | | | |
| senate speaker will ask legislators to pass stability law by end of week
schifani chiederà a presidenti gruppo senato di approvare legge stabilità entro settimana - fonte
the strong request made this morning by pres rep napolitano to speed up the pace of laws to secure our country is having its impact.
We may have the stability law approved by both houses in one week, instead of 15-20 days, and, after the approval, berlusconi will resign (this is NOT under discussion, it s been already agreed) so that the Pres Rep can start the consultations to form a new government.
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| 1507 se volete concorrere a eliminare i privilegi pensionistici dei ns parlamentari, potete firmare questa petizione | | | |
| 1450 also CC&G has increased margins on btp | | | |
| monti govt ? is it far away ? | | | |
| Napolitano has discussed with finance MInister Tremonti details of the austerity plan. The Senate commission is waiting for this plan, to discuss and bring it to the vote at the senate as soon as possible.
The oppositions said this morning they will help a quick approval both of the austerity package at senate and lower house , so that berlusconi can resign.
After that ?
this morning markets have begun to price in early elections and a lasting paralysis of italian political world.
There is another solution : Mario Monti premier, supported by all oppositions (exluding di pietro's idv), helped, especially at the senate, by many MPs leaving from Berlusconi's PDL. A technocrat's governemnt, whose aim is to bring italian accounts under control, valid not only for some months but until the end of this legislature (2013). Sad to say, a Monti Govt, lasting until 2013, would also match many inidvidual MPs interests, of having the life pension, a right which for around 350 of them is triggered in autumn 2012.
While I write, i read the rumor that there could be an ECB emergency meeting.
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| 1406 ecb seen buying italian 2/10 yr bonds on secondary markets aggressively | | | |
| ecb seen buying italian 2/10 yr bonds on secondary markets aggressively | |
| 1337 maxiemendamento at the senate committee this afternoon | | | |
| the budget committee at senate is waiting for the presentation of the austerity package (maxiemendamento). The austerity package shd be ready but under Quirinale's examination. It could be delivered to the budget committee by 16.oo today, so that the committee can start the discussion.
Source SKy24
LINK http://www.stato-oggi.it/archives/000128271.htm | |
| 1337 maxiemendamento at the senate committee this afternoon | | | |
| the budget committee at senate is waiting for the presentation of the austerity package (maxiemendamento). The austerity package shd be ready but under Quirinale's examination. It could be delivered to the budget committee by 16.oo today, so that the committee can start the discussion.
Source SKy24 | |
| 1253 merkel dice che è tempo per un progresso in europa | | | |
| merkel dice che è tempo per un progresso in europa
la situazione in europa è cosi butto che è tempo di cambiare
abbiamo bisogno di un cambi odel trattato
la comunità politica nn puo sopravvivere se non è all altezza dei cambiamenti
le dichiarazioni di ntendi non sono sufficienti e questo è il motivo x cui abbiamo biogno di un agenda di riforme strutturale che possano esere monitorate | |
| sono allibito prima di tutto come italiano... | | | |
| sono allibito prima di tutto come italiano a questo tracollo dei nostri assets.
Per noi vuol dire entrare in una spirale da cui rialzarsi costerà lacrime e sangue, per noi e per i nostri figli.
Non è solo questione di guadagnare o perdere sui titoli in portafoglio, è qualcosa di molto piu grave.
Il sellof di oggi sui btp non l avevo mai visto, neanche negli anni 90.
Speriamo di uscirne vivi.
Non ho idea francamente di cosa possa salvarci in tale situazione : non certo la risposta dei nostri politici, troppo lenta e scoordinata. Non certo la ECB, che ha limiti di acquisto dei titoli di stato. Non certo le dichiarazioni di altri membri EU, che chiedono ulteriori misure di austerità.
Lunedi ci sarà un'altra asta di btp : il quinquennale in asta lunedi rende ora oltre 7.60%. Probabilmente il tesoro sospenderà anche quella asta. | |
| btp future suspended again | | | |
| btp future suspended again | |
| 1115 italy oppositions want budget reforms passed by 14 nov - capogruppo PD | | | |
| italy oppositions want budget reforms passed by 14 nov - capogruppo PD | |
| 1110 btp futures on the downside suspended after the news that treasury has postponed tomorrow's BOT auction | | | |
| btp futures on the downside suspended after the news that treasury has postponed tomorrow's BOT auction | |
| 1035 huge sell off on btp : in 2 days btp fell from 95.5 to 91. | | | |
| huge sell off on btp : in 2 days btp fell from 95.5 to 91.
Just today it lost 250 ticks.
Italy is under attack, since there is no quick answer from politicians. The risk of early elections are increasing, and that would be the worse scenario for us (3-4 months of lack of governing).
In the last minute, btp rebounded 50ticks, maybe ECB is in the market to support btp. | |
| 1017 spread vs bund 511, 10y yield 6.92, 5 yr yield 7.17% | | | |
| spread vs bund 511, 10y yield 6.92, 5 yr yield 7.17% | |
| 1009 btp bund spread above 500bp, sell off also on equities | | | |
| btp bund spread above 500bp, sell off also on equities | |
| important data at 1030 and 1530
10.30 GBP GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) -£8000 -£7768
10.30 GBP GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) -£4975 -£4867
10.30 GBP GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) -£2150 -£1877
13.00 USD USD MBA Mortgage Applications -- 0.2%
14.30 CAD CAD New Housing Price Index (M) 0.2% 0.1%
14.30 CAD CAD New Housing Price Index (Y) 2.3% 2.3%
15.30 USD USD Bernanke Speaks at Fed Conference on Small Business
16.00 USD USD Wholesale Inventories 0.6% 0.4%
16.30 USD USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories -- 1826K
16.30 USD USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory -- -3575K
16.30 USD USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories -- 1356K
16.30 USD USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory -- 560K
inthe night, China CPI came out , much better than expected
3.00 CNY CNY P.P.I. (Y) 5.0 5.8% 6.5% | |
| 925 LCH has increased the margin by 5%, from 6.65 to 11.65% | | | |
| LCH has increased the margin by 5%, from 6.65 to 11.65%
It is not a big jump : in case of ireland and portugal, it raised margins by 15%, in our case only 5%. | |
| 849 berlusconi says his decision to resign is "gesture of responsability"towards country | | | |
| berlusconi says his decision to resign is "gesture of responsability"towards country
Better late than never...
B. says his govt will carry out economic reforms demanded by EU | |
| what's next
berlusconi will resign after the vote of the austerity package. The pres of republic has reveiced the approval also from the centrist third pole : the austerity package will be presented at the senate on 15nov, and will be approved, by confidence vote, on 16 nov. Then it will pass to the lower house for the final approval, which will occur in the immediate following days.
By end of next week, berlusconi should be definitely out.
Napolitano, pres of rep, will start the consultations afterwards.
Berlusconi's proposals : Berlusconi has just proposed his justice minister angelino alfano as next PM (just out now on reuters) or would like snap elections.
Napolitano is not of the same advice : a wider government, maybe led by a personality like Monti or Amato, is possible, of course if there is a large support by other parties on these names. | |
| 821 after the news of LCH new margins, btp lost 150 ticks | | | |
| after the news of LCH new margins, btp lost 150 ticks and fall to ysday's low. Ysady low was 92.32, today 92.06. | |
| 814 lCH clearnet lifts charges on itaian bonds from close today | | | |
| lCH clearnet lifts charges on italian bonds from close today
Don't know yet how much | |
| 802 BTP higher, bund lower => spread decreases | | | |
| ysday ater the announcement of the likely resignation of berlusconi, bund has lost 100 ticks, falling to 138.1. This would means, by itself, -10 bp of spread between btp and bund.
Btp has just opened 93.3, 100 ticks higher than ysday's last prices, another 10bp of spread recovered.
Let s see if ECB buys again today, after 2 days when it stopped buying italian paper, or did it in very light way.
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| 654 BERLUSCONI WILL RESIGN AFTER AUSTERITY MEASURE APPROVED, I.E. 15-20 DAYS GS ANALYSIS | | | |
| THIS IS THE ANALYSIS BY GOLDMAN SACHS, THANKS TO ZEROHEDGE WHICH PUBLISHED IT.
Italy - What's Next After seeing his parliamentary majority decline further in a routine vote earlier today, Italian PM Berlusconi offered to resign once Parliament approves new austerity measures, possibly towards the end of next week. We see three possible outcomes at this delicate stage, with different implications for the BTP market and Italian risk premium more broadly: Most likely scenario: In the coming weeks, the current centre-right coalition of the Northern League and PdL moves to rally round another candidate who can gain wider acceptance domestically and internationally. In order to broaden its support, the new government may reach out to smaller centrist parties which can advance their own political agenda. A centre-right executive backed by a broader coalition and committed to implementing the ‘troika’s' economic platform could eventually stabilize markets. But the newly appointed Cabinet would need to prove itself first, and the protracted uncertainty would weigh on economic growth. Furthermore, reforming the pension system could meet resistance from the Northern League. Still, it would be hard for the ECB and Italy’s EMU peers not to stand by a new Italian government genuinely trying to pursue reforms. Under this scenario, thanks to the ECB’s interventions, we would expect BTPs to remain capped at around current levels (400-450bp) over the average of Germany, France and the Netherlands until measures are gradually approved.
Second most likely scenario: The centrist parties ultimately turn down the offer to join a broader coalition. In this case, more MPs from Berlusconi’s PdL party could join forces with formations at the centre of the political spectrum. This could pave the way for a government of national unity of sorts, led by a highly reputable ‘outsider’. Like during the crisis of the early 1990s, the advantage of such a ‘technocrat’ government is that it would be sworn in after some ‘initial contracting’ on its programme (economic reforms agreed with the ‘troika’, plus a new electoral law), which should lower the implementation risk. A technocrat government could use its credibility to introduce more growth enhancing measures that would pay off further down the road. Lastly, it could focus on improving governance (fiscal rules in the constitution, a smaller public sector, etc). We view this as the most market-friendly outcome, as it would lead over time to a decline in sovereign spreads and in Italy’s risk premium more broadly. The front-end would re-price more than intermediate- and long-term maturity bonds because investors would likely take advantage of the rally to reduce exposure at higher prices. Nevertheless, we would expect BTPs to fall to around 350bp over Bunds in fairly short order. Least likely scenarios: After Berlusconi’s resignation, general elections are called. These could be held in mid-January at the earliest, although they would most likely be postponed until the Spring amid market turmoil. This would represent the worst scenario for markets, in our view. Since President Napolitano is aware of this, he will probably try to resist dissolving Parliament at this juncture. Also, most centrist parties would want to change the electoral law before a new vote takes place. All these scenarios will take some time to play out, a couple of weeks at least. In the meantime, the higher priced Italian government bonds will continue to be sold, as gradually higher margin requirements are applied. On our central case, intermediate to long-end bonds should continue to be supported relative to AAA-rated securities by the ECB. In conclusion, we are most probably approaching the highs in Italian yields (currently around 500bp over German Bunds in the bellwether 10-yr sector, and 600bp in 2-yr maturities), but a volatile and unsettled market remains our base case until Italy’s sovereign creditors can be reassured that long-awaited structural reforms to lift the country’s growth rate will be put in place. | |
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