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| martedì 08 novembre 2011 | 1732 pres of republic is waiting for berlusconi | | | |
| pres of republic is waiting for berlusconi.
the markets are undecided about what to do : berlusconi has not yet resigned,
A) He might go ahead, saying that he has not received a formal no confidence vote => in such case, if he wants to resist, the market will be surely upset , and we may see a renewed selling pressure.
2) In case Berlusconi resigns, I think the situation may change significantly.
I was expecting a repositioning of italia assets in a better shape after the vote , i.e. ftmib and btp higher. Clearly the markets are extremely pragmatic and need to see how the political situation evolves before taking a bet on italy, after months and months of disappointment.
Rehn declarations do not help : "econo and financial situation of italy is very worrying" | |
| 1700 lch clearnet says it has not raised margin charges on italian bonds | | | |
| lch clearnet says it has not raised margin charges on italian bonds
• LCH.Clearnet Ltd monitors the yield spreads between 10-year bonds from each sovereign issuer and benchmark 10-year AAA government bonds. We would generally consider a spread of 450 basis points over the 10-year AAA benchmark to be indicative of additional sovereign risk and LCH.Clearnet Ltd may materially increase the margin required for positions in that issuer. As a guide, materially would likely mean an increase in the order of 15% of position size, with further material increases in margin charged as the spread deteriorates further. We will also consider whether additional margin is required from indicators in CDS prices or Market Implied Rating data.
if the margins are hiked, this could trigger forced selling of italian bonds, this will turn in higher yields, and enter a vicious circle...
The italian and french counterparties use more more Clearnet SA, which has a much less rigid policy on haircuts | |
| 1658 defense minister says berlusconi will consult pres of republic | | | |
| defense minister says berlusconi will consult pres of republic
Of course unclear whether he will resign or not...
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| 1650 italian defense minister La Russa says government will decide next move in coming hours | | | |
| italian defense minister La Russa says government will decide next move in coming hours | |
| 1634 unexpected reaction after the vote | | | |
| unexpected reaction after the vote : yesterday when rumors of berlusconi spread around, the makers rallied strongly.
Now that we are close to this outcome, BTP are losing ground , close to ysday low 92.76. | |
| 1630 market talk that LCH Clearnet are to raise margins for italian debt | | | |
| market talk that LCH Clearnet are to raise margins for italian debt
same rumor as last night.. | |
| 1621 General State Annual Report has been approved thanks to the abstention of the oppositions | | | |
| General State Annual Report has been approved thanks to the abstention of the oppositions but clearly Berlusconi has not the majority to go ahead. There were rumors he coudl collect 310/311 votes, instead he got only 308 weel below the 316 needed to govern.
It s up to him now to decide what to do, whether to resign immediately or to take time : as a matter of fact, he has not received a formal no-confidence vote. His allies, Lega Nord, have already ask him to step apart, and give up. | |
| 1618 leader PD (opposition) asks berlusconi to resign | | | |
| leader PD (opposition) asks berlusconi to resign . the opposition says will do its duty to sustain the country | |
| 308 votes
berlusconi has clearly no longer the majority, worse than expectations (310/311)
let s see now what happens. | |
| 1556 Papademos premier in greece | | | |
| Papademos premier in greece, confirmed | |
| 1542 the session at the lower house is open but it seems that the vote may be delayed untile 17.00 | | | |
| 1531 in few minutes the session at the lower house will start | | | |
| all depending on the count of votes
in few minutes the session at the lower house will start, and the vote will take place.
of course, I will follow the realtime from the parliament.. | |
| 1351 risk appetite increasing | | | |
| bund is falling, has broken an important support a 137.52/53, volume supports at 137.18, but the strongest support is a 136.87/89, volumes of 3 and 4 nov.
dax stoxx and es have broken on the upside above today's high.
dax : just moved above 6063, outstading poc weekly of 2 weeks ago, Other resistances at 6095 and 6125, barchart. At 6125 there is also a resistence based on volumes (last week), and above 6146 is another volume resistance.
the bias is still bullish.
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| 1347 greece : tonight probably the name of the new PM will be announced | | | |
| greece : tonight probably the name of the new PM will be announced
The 2 major parties have not yet found an agreement on the name, | |
| 1317 lower house discussion live in the link | | | |
| 1229 leader of northern league, umberto bossi, declared he asked berlusconi to step aside | | | |
| leader of northern league, umberto bossi, declared he asked berlusconi to step aside.
we know that berlusconi refused and decided to go ahead. It s clear that his majority is losing pieces everywhere.. | |
| 1216 the main opposition party will abstain in today's vote | | | |
| the main opposition party will abstain in today's vote. The General State Annual Report is not at risk , since there shdnt be contrarians. But, as already said, the key issue is to see how many votes berlusconi government can find, i.e. wlll he obtain the majority of 316 or not. | |
| 1159 5 deputies from PDL confirm that they will not vote | | | |
| 5 deputies from PDL confirm that they will not vote the General State Annual Report this afternoon.
I think that their names are already taken into account when saying that berlusconi will get 310-311 vote, lower than the 316 needed to confirm he has the majority.
Roberto Antonione, Giustina Destro, Fabio Gava, Giancarlo Pittelli, Antonio Buonfiglio non parteciperanno al voto sul rendiconto dello Stato.
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| 1119 a bearish head and shoulder. close to be denied => charts | | | |
| http://www.thehawktrader.com/ita/images/20111108hes.gif
these are charts of main EU an US equities. After the big rally equities are drawing a bearish head and shoulder. They approached the neckline, but didnt break it (not even test it...). Now, the risk is that the H&S gets aborted, if the trendline connecting head + right shoulder is broken on the upside. If this happens, I expect a good rally of equities.
stavo guardando i TeS ribassisti dax e stoxx barrB di cui parlavo qualche gg fa.. ha fatto al seconda spalla, sno scesi, e ora stanno per testare la trendline dalla testa.. se nega il Tes rompendo la tline testa / spalla destra possono camminare bene. | |
| 1029 after bad close of btp last night , this morning a rebound in price | | | |
| ysday night last trades of btp were below 93, quite bad. This morning it is trading higher, 93.45, on average volumes.
No rumor of ECB intervention so far.
The apread btp bund tightens to 481pb from 490 close of last night, the yield of 10yr italian paper decreases from 6.69 to 6.64.
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| 959 there is a bulish head and shoulder on dax , neckline 6025/30, and stoxx 2305/2307. | | | |
| quiet morning so far.
volumes in dax and stoxx are in the middle-low range (out of the the apsta 55 sessions, 39 has higher traded volumes than today).
there is a bulish head and shoulder on dax , neckline 6025/30, and stoxx 2305/2307. The target of the HS is 6151 and 2152 stoxx
european equities, and in particular italian ftmib, behaved quite well ysday, if compared to the turmoil on italian BTP. The strength of ftmib was really shocking.
The bias is bullish, markets well supported by yesterday volume areaa, 2274 POC stoxx + 5934 poc dax.
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| already released
8.00 EUR EUR Ger Trade Balance (euros) 17.4 12.5B 11.8B => much better than expected
important data at 1030, nothing else during the day
8.45 EUR EUR Fr Trade Balance (euros) -6000M -4967M
10.30 GBP GBP Indus. Production (M) 0.1% 0.2%
10.30 GBP GBP Indus. Production (Y) -0.8% -1.0%
10.30 GBP GBP Manufacturing Production (M) 0.1% -0.3%
10.30 GBP GBP Manufacturing Production (Y) 1.9% 1.5%
13.30 USD USD NFIB Small Business Optimism 90 88.9
14.15 CAD CAD Housing Starts 195.0K 207.6K
16.00 USD USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 41.1 40.3
16.00 USD USD JOLTs Job Openings -- 3056
16.00 GBP GBP NIESR GDP Estimate -- 0.5%
19.00 USD USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Sioux Falls, South Dakota
19.30 USD USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in Philadelphia
in the afternoon, at around 15.30 rome time, the crucial vote on the General State Annual Report. I remind that the problem is not "yes/no" : it will be approved thanks to oppositions' abstention, but it will be important to see how many votes berlusconi gets (>= or < 316).
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