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| venerdì 11 novembre 2011 | I have to leave soon
In the afternoon I m going to Torino, to meet a dietologo specialized in diet for athlets. I m going to study with him a diet for traders, to be always "in the zone" for the whole trading session and not to make mistakes with food and beverage....
see you on monday.====================l incontro di ieri con il dietologo naturopata è stato a dir poco illuminante. Si chiama Luca Saccagno, di Aosta, e lavora soprattutto con atleti. Abbiamo parlato per oltre un ora, discutendo il tipo di lavoro del trader, lo stress cui è sottoposto, il lavoro mentale richiesto in termini di concentrazione, reattività, ecc ecc. Mi ha spiegato i problemi di energia cui potremmo essere sottoposti, i cibi sbagliati che normalmente assumiamo e che ci rendono pigri sonnolenti lenti nelle reazioni, gli stress anche di tipo elettromagnetico derivanti dalla continua esposizione a molti monitors. Ci sentiremo di nuovo via skype la settimana prox x mettere a punto un programma per traders. Sono estremamente soddisfatto di averlo incontrato, e sono sicuro che arriveremo a mettere insieme un ulteriore importante tassello x migliorare la performance non solo di noi nel trading ma in generale in tutte le nostre attività. Vi aggiornero' presto sull'argomento. | |
| 1338 btp bund spread at 486 bp - level in bund | | | |
| btp bund spread at 486 bp
at present bund is little moved, THe volume traded on bund is very light (in the last 57 sessions, 54 have traded more volumes than now). There is a good resistance at 13833, yesterday poc. Above it, 138.83 is a huge and sharp POC created on 9 nov.
SUpports area 13792, double low of today and yesterday. It it breaks this level, quite important, bund may easily fall to 13707/08, double low of 8 and 9 nov. | |
| the senate has approved the financial stability law | | | |
| senato ha approvato la legge di stabilit finanziaria
the senate has approved the financial stability law
Now it will pass to the lower house, where the final and definite approval is expected by tomorrow night. After that berlusconi will resign. | |
| ftmib has underperformed sharply other european markets in the past 5 years: see the underperformance vs dax and stoxx in the following charts :
LINK http://www.thehawktrader.com/ita/images/20111111ftmibdaxstoxx_weekly.gif
LINK http://www.thehawktrader.com/ita/images/20111111ftmibdaxstoxx_chart.gif
what Italy has lost in terms of industrial strenght is impressive : that s the outcome of years and years of lack of clear economic guidance by the government.
Is it time to recover this underperformance ? will big money enter Italy again, attracted by a new credible and sound government ?
May be it s too early to say yes.
EUrope is not a sexy place where to put the money in for 2 reasons :
1) the macro picture is gloomy, EU is very close to recession
2) the debt crisis is still far away from a solution
Investors are very little invested in european equities.
This is , from a contrarian point of view, a positive think. Should real money decide to reenter europe, there is much to arrive.
As far as italy is concerned, this is the situation of ftmib :
LINK http://www.thehawktrader.com/ita/images/20111111ftmib.gif
we are in a big lateral. There is a first trendline from the recent high which comes in at 15540. Above this trendline, you can see that there are still heavy volumes built during october. Only once passed 16175 (where the volumes end), we have to face the resistance at 16550, the trendline lasting 6 months. After that, there are no more important resistances untli 17480 or even 18300 (where new volumes will stop the rally).
What to do then ? as usual, let s wait for a clear sign from the prices.
A close above the first trendline 15540 is the trigger for long positions. It could easily be the opening of monday morning..
A move in ftmib outright depends also on the general equity situation. A different way to play the relative strength of ftmib is by shorting other indices, as shown in previous posts. in such a way, one would be immunized by a downward move of equities markets, hoping that the italian market would be stronger and thus fall less than the others.
Probably it s still too early to take strong bets on italian ftmib. Smart money wants to see how Monti is backed by parties, and what room to manoeuvre parties give him. A fully technocrat government, heavily backed, would be a strong positive signal. A government with too many old politicians means that Monti is still hostage. Let s see on monday...
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| 1000 for those willing to open a spread long ftmib short stoxx | | | |
| http://www.thehawktrader.com/ita/images/lotsspreadftmibstoxx.gif
for those willing to open a spread long ftmib short stoxx, for example, in this printscreen you can choose the combination of long minifib - short stoxx, with the detail of the coutervalue.
3 lots long of minifib means 46.530 euro, while the 2 short stoxx are 45.800 euro. | |
| 949 sentitevi questo video di cosa pensi Monti, finalmente parole saggie. | | | |
| very light volumes so far on markets | | | |
| very light volumes so far on markets : dax and stoxx are trading quite light, while btp is strong and just broke 92.00 to the upside and is trading more heavily compared to equities. | |
| during the week end :
today the senate should vote the austerity measures, the law will then pass to the lower house for the final vote, which may happen saturday evening.
After that, Berlusconi will resign and Napolitano will have extremely fast consultations (sunday morning) and will give the mandate to form a new govt to Mario Monti.
Monti shd already have a list of likely ministers : the new govt will be very light and agile, composed of just 12-15 ministers. Difficult so far to know if the composition of ministers will reflect more a political or a technocrat govt. WHat's sure is the attention that will be given to the implementation of the letter sent by EU/ecb to italy, and new measure to foster growth (which were totally missing in Berlusca govt). As Monti said " the attention is to the GDP" => good for italian equities, by sure...
On monday we shd have thus the appointment of the new govt. For the list of ministers we shd wait a little bit more.
On monday there is also an auction of btps. 4.75 9/2016, 1.5-3bn euro, which will immediately test the italian placing power... | |
| very few data today. the most important one comes in at 15.55
10.30 GBP GBP P.P.I. Input n.s.a. (M) -0.3% 1.7%
10.30 GBP GBP P.P.I. Input n.s.a. (Y) 14.6% 17.5%
10.30 GBP GBP P.P.I. Output n.s.a. (M) 0.2% 0.3%
10.30 GBP GBP P.P.I. Output Core n.s.a. (M) 0.1% 0.3%
10.30 GBP GBP P.P.I. Output n.s.a. (Y) 5.9% 6.3%
10.30 GBP GBP P.P.I. Output Core n.s.a. (Y) 3.6% 3.8%
15.55 USD USD U. of Michigan Confidence 61.5 60.9
20.45 USD USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Panel at IMF Conference | |
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