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| lunedì 07 novembre 2011 | 2117 Rumors that LCHClearnet has hiked margins on Btp | | | |
| Rumors that LCHClearnet has hiked margins on Btp | |
| 1942 timetable for tomorrow's vote | | | |
| timetable for tomorrow's vote
the debate will begin at 12.30 rome time.
the vote is expected by 15.30 rome time. | |
| 1930 what's tomorrow re. vote on the General State Annual Report | | | |
| tomorrow vote on the General State Annual Report :
I dont know yet the precise agenda of the Parliament. Tomorrow I ll have a more precis timetable.
In the meantime the oppositions are keen not to vote against the GSAR but just to abstain, thus allowing the GSAR to be approved.
As said in the 15.25 post, the votes count will be fundamental to decide the next steps.
case A
Berlusconi gets less than .316 vote : no more majority ! The crisis speeds up much. He shd refer immediately to the pres of rep, and resign. He could also try to gain some time and ask a confidence vote on the law which approves the news nov-26 measures, threatening early elections. Regardless of his efforts, the road is paved toward a new govt : more and more PDL deputies will abandon like mouses the sinking ship. Eventually Berlusconi may cancel the request of confidence vote. Markets will move strongly up, as we say early today.
case B
berlusconi gets >= 316 votes. He will go ahead fighting. He will put a confidence vote on the law which approves the news nov-26 measures, to regain control of the parliament. The crisis then will slow a lot and let him gain much time. THe confidence vote will occur first at the senate, where it s likely to pass, and, next week at the lower house. The oppositions may propose a no-confidence vote motion, to speed up again the crisis at the lower house. In this case B, it s dificult to understand a likely end.
Ahead of tomorrow's vote, during the night it will be important to see if there are new escapes from Berlusconi's party PDL or vote declaration from key PDL deputies.
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| 1857 LCH margin hikes on italian Btps ? | | | |
| Here below the guidelines for the LCH re. boonds :
• LCH.Clearnet Ltd monitors the yield spreads between 10-year bonds from each sovereign issuer and benchmark 10-year AAA government bonds. We would generally consider a spread of 450 basis points over the 10-year AAA benchmark to be indicative of additional sovereign risk and LCH.Clearnet Ltd may materially increase the margin required for positions in that issuer. As a guide, materially would likely mean an increase in the order of 15% of position size, with further material increases in margin charged as the spread deteriorates further. We will also consider whether additional margin is required from indicators in CDS prices or Market Implied Rating data.
according to these guidelines, tonight close of btp, well above the 450 BP of spread could trigger a margin hike by LCH. This happened when Irish spread broke 450 : LCH hiked margins, and hiked 2 more times when spreads stabilized over 500 bp.
Could this explain the sudden drop of btp from 94.50 to 92.80 toward the close of the market? fears of margin hike ? which of course is not a nice visiting card for btp holders... | |
| 1721 btp just broke the low of the day | | | |
| btp just broke the low of the day. that s not a good sign for tomorrow but of ocurse the situazion is extremely fluid and may change in any moment
ECB purchases since this morning have been pretty light, well below 1 bn, focused on 10yr paper.. Last week , ecb was buying some 2.-2.5 bn each day of italian paper.
The volume on btp today has been pretty close to record, amounting to more than 15ooo lots.
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| 1716 btp is falling again toward the low of the day | | | |
| btp is falling again toward the low of the day, 93.26. It s now 93.33, Ftmib is still holding a relative overperformance compared to other europen markets (+1.5 vs -0.70 dax -0.44 stoxx).
No additiional rumor re. tomorrow's vote or declarations from italian politicians,
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| my website is normally in italian but , due to the the key importance for all european markets of recent developments in italy, I start writing them directly in english,
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| 1525 italian markets very quiet now - next steps | | | |
| italian markets very quiet now, after berlusconi denied this resignation.
After an initial sell off when he denied, italian assets, the itlian stock exchange FTmib and BTPs, have recovered some of the losses.
There are no more rumors after those of this morning, who were betting on Berl resignations today or tomorrow.
So the afternoon looks to stay quiet...
Next steps :
Berlusconi should ask the confidence vote on the law which introduces the reforms he presented at the EU summit nov26 (maxi-emendamento on stability law). The confidence vote could be first voted at the Senate (where actual majority is stronger ) and, after that, at the lower house. The examination of this maxi emendamento will start wednesday at the senate.
At the lower house the situation is much more complex, since there many PDL (freedom party, Berl's party) deputies have decided to move away from him. That s why Berl wants to win a confidence vote first at the senate.
Tomorrow's vote for the General State Annual Report
this law, which was voted 1 month ago but didnt pass (he GOvt lost the majority on it) is estremely important since without it the functioning of the state is stopped. the pres of republic has asked the political forces not to put this law at risk , so tomorrow we expect this law to be approved. The oppositions want anyway to send a clear signal : they will very likely exit the lower house, so that the quotum will be reduced sharply. The law then will pass with the vote of the majority. The maojrity will then count its votes very easily : if it is below 316, it means that, even on this law, berlusconi has lost the majority.
So, tomorrow's vote will be a key issue not on the outcome (yen / no) which is by sure a Yes, but on the count of vote (> or < 316).
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| 1430 berlusconi goes ahead | | | |
| RTRS-ITALIAN MINISTER SAYS AFTER MEETING WITH BERLUSCONI CONTINUING OUR WORK, IF GOVT HAS MAJORITY, WILL KEEP GOING, OTHERWISE WILL BE NEW ELECTIONS
berlusconi doesnt open the way to a new government, but says "myself or new elections".
Tomorrow there will be a key vote on the State General Budget : on this there will be the first count of votes. It seems that berlusconi has lost the majority of 315 votes at the Lower House, but may win this vote since this state general buget is extremely important for the correct functioning of the public administration and Pres of rep Napolitano wld like this law to be approved.
But , to reaffirm his leadership, B. is willing to ask a confidence vote on the EU letter (not yet clear when) : some deputies who will vote the state general budget aren't willing instead to back to govt on the confidence vote. And here B may really risk to fall.
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| 1259 berlusconi : infondati i rumors delle mie dimissioni | | | |
| berlusconi : infondati i rumors delle mie dimissioni | |
| 1214 la news di possibili dimissioni di berlusconi entro 24 ore sta facendo il giro del mondo | | | |
| la news di possibili dimissioni di berlusconi entro 24 ore sta facendo il giro del mondo, e sostiene gli asset italiani. | |
| 1210 le banche italiane sono tutte quasi vicino alla sopsensione al rialzo | | | |
| le banche italiane sono tutte quasi vicino alla sopsensione al rialzo | |
| 1208 aveva ragione il FTMIB stamattina | | | |
| aveva ragione il FTMIB stamattina
d'altrnode, se mani primarie devono entrare long pesanti, preferisono sicuramente entrare sull azionario italiano piuttosto che sul mercato BTP future, poco liquido. | |
| 12.00 EUR EUR Ger Indus. Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (Y) ... 7.2% 7.7%
12.00 EUR EUR Ger Indus. Production s.a. (M) -2.7 -0.9% -1.0% rivisto -0.4 | |
| 1200 su Libero-news.it, pressing su berlusconi, dimissioni entro 24 ore | | | |
| su Libero-news.it, pressing su berlusconi, dimissioni entro 24 ore | |
| 1154 c'è aria di cambio di mood qui intorno.. | | | |
| c'è aria di cambio di mood qui intorno..
il ftmib è definitivamente in territorio positivo, i BTP hanno fatto un doppi min intraday in area 9334/9329.
gli azionari hanno fatto tutti una bella base con poc invariato a 5867 e 2244, e hanno rotto il range laterale di stamattina.
Bisogna stare molto attenti a shortare ora, secondo me.
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| 1152 martedi la EU potrebbe pagare la sesta tranche alla grecia se c'è un governo in carica | | | |
| martedi la EU potrebbe pagare la sesta tranche alla grecia se c'è un governo in carica | |
| 1138 FTMIB pari, banche italiane tutte in positivo | | | |
| FTMIB pari, banche italiane tutte in positivo | |
| 1130 i mercati azionari entrano in un laterale di circa 1% (5840 5904 2233 2354). | | | |
| i mercati azionari entrano in un laterale di circa 1% (5840 5904 2233 2354).
stnno facendo una base con poc 5867 e 2244, e ora ci stanno lavorando sopra.
intanto escono queste news :
EFSF ripropone l emissione dei decennali 3bn che erano stati sospesi la settimana scorsa
domani giuramente del nuovo governo, dopodomani voto di fiducia al parlamento. | |
| 1101 webank : domani non si terrà il seminario a GENOVA | | | |
| webank : domani non si terrà il seminario a GENOVA
si studia un'altra data, per ora non ancora definita. | |
| 1100 usciti i dati EU => peggiori del previsto | | | |
| 11.00 EUR EUR Eu-Zone Retail Sales (M) -0.7 -0.1% 0.1%
11.00 EUR EUR Eu-Zone Retail Sales (Y) -1.5 -0.5% -0.1% | |
| 11.00 EUR EUR Eu-Zone Retail Sales (M) -0.1% 0.1%
11.00 EUR EUR Eu-Zone Retail Sales (Y) -0.5% -0.1% | |
| 1056 commento di goldman sachs sulla situazione italiana | | | |
| 1030 i socialisti e l opposizione greca convengono su papademos come PM, venizelos resta min finanze | | | |
| i socialisti e l opposizione greca convengono su papademos come PM, venizelos resta min finanze | |
| 1020 il ftmib quasi flat, perde solo 0.40% | | | |
| il ftmib quasi flat, perde solo 0.40%
la cosa è davvero anomala, dato che c'è sempre stata una fortissima correlazione tra andamento dei titoli di stato e dlla borsa, non solo in italia ma anche in grecia.
la cosa è ancora piu strana se si considera che il btp oggi è stato massacrato | |
| 1003 il ftmib tiene meglio del dax e anche dello stoxx | | | |
| il ftmib tiene meglio del dax e anche dello stoxx. questo mi lascia un po perplesso su questa discesa.
c'è un contrasto tra l andamento del btp e del ftmib, che invece dovrebbero andare di pari passo.
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| 855 BTP scende a 94, minimo post-euro. | | | |
| BTP scende a 94, minimo post-euro.
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| 832 i mercati erano partiti bene ma hanno perso subito | | | |
| i mercati erano partiti bene, o per lo meno abbastanza alti. Papademos in grecia è un ottima soluzione.
Resta il nodo italia, sarà una settimana cruciale. SUggerisco la lettura degli articoli del COrriere , con una bella carrellata di possibilità. Anche maroni ha detto che i numeri non ci sono piu x la maggioranza, e l uscita di gabriella carlucci dal PDL è un colpo basso al cavaliere.
Il BTP rompe il low di venerdi in area 95 eperde subito 50 ticks. Gli azionari passano a -1% velocemente con volumi nella media delle ultime sessioni.
I primi supporti importanti sono a 1240 ES, volumi di venerdi, e 2254, POC non vergine dello stoxx.
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| oggi da seguire i dati alle 11 e alle 12
9.00 GBP GBP Halifax House Price 3MoY -2.3% -2.3%
9.00 GBP GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. M 0.1% -0.5%
10.30 EUR EUR Eu-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence -20 -18.5
11.00 EUR EUR Eu-Zone Retail Sales (M) -0.1% 0.1%
11.00 EUR EUR Eu-Zone Retail Sales (Y) -0.5% -0.1%
12.00 EUR EUR Ger Indus. Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (Y) 7.2% 7.7%
12.00 EUR EUR Ger Indus. Production s.a. (M) -0.9% -1.0%
21.00 USD USD Consumer Credit $5.200B -$9.501B
0.50 JPY JPY Official Reserve Assets -- $1200.6B
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| 826 Invio la mia solidarietà a tutti coloro che invece sono stati colpiti dall'alluvione. | | | |
| già da ieri a genova c'è il sole.
Sono stati 3 giorni molto pesanti. I danni sono limitati ad una zona molto ridotta della città, e tutto sommato non sarebbero stati neanche esageratamente gravi se non ci fossero state le vittime umane... un tributo di vite umane troppe per una città che convive da sempre con torrenti che arrivano direttamente nella città.
Poteva andare molto, ma molto, peggio se il BIsagno, il torrente piu grosso, avesse rotto gli argini, Avremo visto un bis dell alluvione del 1970.
Le critiche al Comune ovviamente sono fortissime..
Grazie a tutti coloro che mi hanno contattato in privato, io x fortuna non ho avuto il minimo danno.
Invio la mia solidarietà a tutti coloro che invece sono stati colpiti dall'alluvione.
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