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| 937 some profit takin after the initial rally | | | |
| some profit taking appears on equities after the initial rally. dax has closed the gapup , ftmib not yet. there are no news behind this downward move. I think that the trend for equities esp. italian, is on the upside. Monti and Papademos could save europe but they still have to ask votes to old parties to support the reforms. The old parties are alwaya the same ones as before. International investors , terrified by a scary european situation (the debt crisis started more than 18 months ago, and so far has only worsened...), need to see proves that these PM can rule effectively. Next week we have witnessed a relief rally : a heavy short covering rally, surprised by a political reply much faster than forecast. Now that some short positions have been closed, the real money will wait for a reality check of the new governments :1. the composition of the govies, 2. the vote in the parliament, and 3. the presentation of the programmes : these will be the fundamental steps that will persuade them that a new path of italy and greece is on track. I expect then some pullbacks but these pullbacks will be a good opportunity to buy. The next major steps indicatored above 1-2-3 will be prepared by small rallies, and the prices will stabilize at higher level after the news. Same will happen with btp bund spread. | |
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