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| 1930 what's tomorrow re. vote on the General State Annual Report | | | |
| tomorrow vote on the General State Annual Report : I dont know yet the precise agenda of the Parliament. Tomorrow I ll have a more precis timetable. In the meantime the oppositions are keen not to vote against the GSAR but just to abstain, thus allowing the GSAR to be approved. As said in the 15.25 post, the votes count will be fundamental to decide the next steps. case A Berlusconi gets less than .316 vote : no more majority ! The crisis speeds up much. He shd refer immediately to the pres of rep, and resign. He could also try to gain some time and ask a confidence vote on the law which approves the news nov-26 measures, threatening early elections. Regardless of his efforts, the road is paved toward a new govt : more and more PDL deputies will abandon like mouses the sinking ship. Eventually Berlusconi may cancel the request of confidence vote. Markets will move strongly up, as we say early today. case B berlusconi gets >= 316 votes. He will go ahead fighting. He will put a confidence vote on the law which approves the news nov-26 measures, to regain control of the parliament. The crisis then will slow a lot and let him gain much time. THe confidence vote will occur first at the senate, where it s likely to pass, and, next week at the lower house. The oppositions may propose a no-confidence vote motion, to speed up again the crisis at the lower house. In this case B, it s dificult to understand a likely end. Ahead of tomorrow's vote, during the night it will be important to see if there are new escapes from Berlusconi's party PDL or vote declaration from key PDL deputies. | |
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