stamattina nel Volume Talks ho parlato della domanda a Powell sulle FInancial Conditions e di come la sua risposta abbia dato il via al rally.
Ecco un interessante articolo proprio su questo tema
. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-holds-fire-markets-breaking-212213820.html


For the second straight meeting, the very first question he was asked at the press conference was whether he was worried about the rally creating easier financial conditions that could hamper his inflation fight and, once again, he chose not to push back hard. “Our focus is not on short-term moves, but on sustained changes” to financial conditions, he said.

“There’s a real disconnect between what he said, what the statement said, maybe what he wanted to say, and what the markets heard,” BlackRock’s Jeffrey Rosenberg said on Bloomberg TV. “But what the markets heard was this issue of the conflict between financial conditions easing, and whether or not that would impact the Fed’s policy making — he dismissed it.”
....
The emphasis on tighter conditions is being taken by traders as evidence the latest rallies in equities and credit are not a major concern for policy makers, essentially freeing them to bid up prices.
....
“Powell has said that financial conditions have tightened considerably despite the fact that they have eased considerably,” wrote Neil Dutta, head of US economic research at Renaissance Macro Research LLC. “The fact that he has said this is dovish in its own right,” according to Dutta, who added: “the odds are increasing that the Fed is declaring victory too soon.”

 

===================

 

powell ha dato l impressione che condizioni finanziarie indiscutibilmente piu morbide non fossero un problema per la fed.
e quindi i traders hanno letto questo come semaforo verde per comprare stocks.

l indice delle FInancial conditions è elaborato (tra gli altri) anche dalla Fed di St louis
. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCI

tiene conto di vari fattori, tra cui anche il valore degli indici :

The Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) provides a comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets and the traditional and "shadow" banking systems.
 Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.

guardando un chart a 12 mesi, si vede che i livelli di oggi sono in discsa rispetto al picco toccato a meta ottobre 2022, e sono pari a quelli che erano prevalenti nel aprile  2022...  essendo sotto il valore di zero, le FC sono in territorio di espansione rispetto alla media.

C'è da chiedersi davvero se Powell non si sia sbagliato a mandare questo messaggio.

 VOLUME TALKS, youtube h 8:00
 
FED +25bp (atteso) ma Powell dovish: rally indici, spread dax/es scende.
Tnote: rendimento scende al 3,40% supp. Powell ottimista: no landing

BCE e BOE attese +50bp
trim: Santander, Ing, Nordea, DB, Apple, AMZN, Alphabet,

. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhuhLy2NJ8I