lunga intervist a Bullard, il super falco della FED. Piu tardi parlerà Lagarde (19oo) e Powell (20oo) Sono usciti retail sales ottimi : piu alti del previsto . Anche la prod industriale di aprile è uscita migliore del previsto ( +1.1 +0.5 previsto +09 precedente). Gli indici continuano la loro salita : ES NQ e RTY hanno rotto resistenze importanti (il nasdaq ci sta lavorando ora, 530/55o) e potrebbero continuare il rialzo indicato stamattina. Il dax si è fermat sulla resistenza a 180-200. Se riesce a romperla, non ha niente che lo fermi fino a 320 340. Ecco tutte le dicharazioni di Bullard : BULLARD: CONTINUED ABOVE TREND GROWTH FOR U.S. IS THE BASE CASE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 18 MONTHS AT LEAST LABOR MKT 'VERY GOOD;' HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION EXPECTED TO HOLD UP THIS YR; 1Q HIT BY OMICRON PLUS UKRAINE WAR IN FEB The labor market remains super tight SEE 'SECND REOPENING OF US ECONOMY' THIS QUARTER AND IN 3RD QUARTER; SEE 'FAIRLY GOOD ECONOMY' INTO 2023 BIGGEST RISKS TO U.S. OUTLOOK ARE WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO EUROPEAN AND CHINESE ECONOMIES : THERE ARE RISKS, SUCH AS EUROPEAN AND CHINESE ECONOMY PROSPECTS; US TO EVENTUALLY SLOW TO TREND LINE GROWTH UKRAINE WAR IN MACROECONOMIC SENSE, IF STAYS AT THIS LEVEL, DON'T EXPECT EUROPE TO GO INTO RECESSION; COULD BE WORSE MAJOR CONCERN LAST FEW DAYS IS CHINA'S GROWTH RATE; COULD GET 'MARKED DOWN;' CHINA DOESN'T SEEM TO HAVE COVID EXIT STRATEGY HIISTORY 'OVERWHELMING' THAT IT''S UP TO CENTRAL BANKS TO CONTROL INFLATION; HAS BEEN EFFECTIVE IN THE PAST DON'T EXPECT EUROPE TO GO INTO RECESSION 'PANDEMIC HAS THROWN US FOR A LOOP ON INFLATION;' STILL INFLATIONARY 'HANGOVER' FROM STIMULUS; MISSING TGT 'BY A MILE AS MUCH INFLATION 'RIGHT NOW AS IN THE 1970S;' AFFECTS EVERYONE IN ECONOMY, LOW TO MODERATE INCOMES ESPECIALLY FED HAS A "GOOD PLAN IN PLACE" TO BRING INFLATION DOWN INFLATION RATES WENT MUCH HIGHER LATE LAST YEAR INSTEAD OF 'ROLLING OVER' AS EXPECTED; SO STARTED TO 'MAKE MOVES' BEEN 'ON MOST HAWKISH SIDE' RE CONTROLLING INFLATION; RIGHT NOW HAVE GOOD POLICY IN PLACE; 'MORE THAN MEETS THE EYE' FINANCIAL MARKET TIGHTENING SHOULD ALREADY BE LOWERING INFLATION, BUT MEANS BROAD ASSET REPRICING, MORE VOLATILITY MARKET VOLATILITY REFLECTS POLICY OUTLOOK RE-PRICING 50BP INCREASES AT COMING MEETINGS A GOOD BASE CASE FOR NOW REPEAATS, THINK HAVE GOOD ANTI-INFLATION POLICY IN PLACE NOW; THINGS CAN ALWAYS CHANGE 'IN 60 DAYS' HIGHER ENERGY PRICES DON'T CHANGE INFLATION TARGET 'FOR ME;' ENERGY AMONG INFLATION FACTORS 'CHANGING OVER TIME' LIKE MEDICAL CARE US 'LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO ENERGY SHOCKS;' LESS AFFECTED BY HIGH ENERGY PRICES THAN EUROPE; CAN'T JUST EXTRAPOLATE IF THERE WAS EVER A TIME TO BORROW, IT WAS IN PANDEMIC; HAVE TO PAY OFF 'OVER A LONG HORIZON;' DEBT/GDP TO HIGH LEVEL HAVING 'DIVIDED GOVERNMENT' IN US MEANS PROBABLY NO MORE BIG SPENDING PACKAGES TO COME NO ONE ARGUING ANY MORE GLOBALLY THAT HIGH AND VARIABLE INFLATION A GOOD THING; QE INTENDED TO HELP AVOID HOUSING PROB QT : TURNED OUT WAS NO NEW FINANCIAL CRISIS BUT WAS HARD TO DECIDE TO PULL BACK ON ASSET PURCHASES; NOW TAKING OFF TABLE NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHAT EFFECT WILL BE IN US AND ELSEWHERE OF PULLING BACK ASSET PURCHASES; WATCHING CAREFULLY NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHAT EFFECT WILL BE IN US AND ELSEWHERE OF PULLING BACK ASSET PURCHASES; WATCHING CAREFULLY FOREX CRYPTO US WILL BE RESERVE CURRENCY 'FOR A LONG TIME TO COME' CRYPTOCURRENCIES NEED BACKING OF A VERY LARGE ECONOMY; MOST NOT WORTH VERY MUCH OR ZERO; LONG WAY FROM RIVALING DOLLAR FED NOT AS FAR BEHIND THE CURVE AS SOME SAY BECAUSE MARKET ANTICIPATING RATE MOVES INCREASES IN MARKET RATES FOR TREASURIES, HOME MORTGAGES, SHOW FED IS NOT AS FAR BEHIND THE CURVE AS MIGHT BE THOUGHT (edited) |