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venerdì 11 novembre 2011
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| 1203 zoom on ftmib | | | |
| ftmib has underperformed sharply other european markets in the past 5 years: see the underperformance vs dax and stoxx in the following charts : LINK http://www.thehawktrader.com/ita/images/20111111ftmibdaxstoxx_weekly.gif LINK http://www.thehawktrader.com/ita/images/20111111ftmibdaxstoxx_chart.gif what Italy has lost in terms of industrial strenght is impressive : that s the outcome of years and years of lack of clear economic guidance by the government. Is it time to recover this underperformance ? will big money enter Italy again, attracted by a new credible and sound government ? May be it s too early to say yes. EUrope is not a sexy place where to put the money in for 2 reasons : 1) the macro picture is gloomy, EU is very close to recession 2) the debt crisis is still far away from a solution Investors are very little invested in european equities. This is , from a contrarian point of view, a positive think. Should real money decide to reenter europe, there is much to arrive. As far as italy is concerned, this is the situation of ftmib : LINK http://www.thehawktrader.com/ita/images/20111111ftmib.gif we are in a big lateral. There is a first trendline from the recent high which comes in at 15540. Above this trendline, you can see that there are still heavy volumes built during october. Only once passed 16175 (where the volumes end), we have to face the resistance at 16550, the trendline lasting 6 months. After that, there are no more important resistances untli 17480 or even 18300 (where new volumes will stop the rally). What to do then ? as usual, let s wait for a clear sign from the prices. A close above the first trendline 15540 is the trigger for long positions. It could easily be the opening of monday morning.. A move in ftmib outright depends also on the general equity situation. A different way to play the relative strength of ftmib is by shorting other indices, as shown in previous posts. in such a way, one would be immunized by a downward move of equities markets, hoping that the italian market would be stronger and thus fall less than the others. Probably it s still too early to take strong bets on italian ftmib. Smart money wants to see how Monti is backed by parties, and what room to manoeuvre parties give him. A fully technocrat government, heavily backed, would be a strong positive signal. A government with too many old politicians means that Monti is still hostage. Let s see on monday... | |
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Categorie News | |
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