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1707 il tnote ha rotto intorno alle 14.30 il minimo precedente

il tnote ha rotto intorno alle 14.30 il minimo precedente, che era a 118.97 e ora viaggia 20 ticks piu basso (118.76).
il rendimento è salito a 3.06.
Intanto l euro si sta indebolendo (è tornato a 1.1850, ora 1.1885), e gli indici Usa hanno stornato un po.
Il bund ha rotto 158oo.
vediamoi se il tnote riesce a confermare della rottura del supporto anche in chiusura.
Inviato da Antonio Lengua il mar 15 maggio 2018 - 17:07:55 | Leggi/Invia Commenti:2 |Stampa veloce
Commenti
1707 il tnote ha rotto intorno alle 14.30 il minimo precedente Deus_ex_machina | 15 mag : 17:28
Commenti: 5148

Utente 26 lug : 16:46
Replica a questo

Bill Gross says US 30-year yields won't break 3.22%

The long bond is the big focus

US 10-year yields rose to the highest since 2011 today but the bigger technical level is in 30 years.

The resistance is easy to spot as it ranges from the current level of 3.18% to 3.25%. With rates up 5 bps today, it won't take much more to bust out.



Bill Gross thinks it won't happen. He highlights the long-term downtrend over the past 30-years, which comes in a 3.22%.

"Will 3.22% be broken to upside?" he asks on Twitter. "I don't think so. The economy can't support yields higher than 3.25% for 30s and 10s, nor 3% for 5s. Continuing hibernating bond bear market is best forecast."

If he's right it doesn't necessarily mean the US dollar will reverse right away but it would be a good sign for stocks and would limit how far the US dollar might run.

1707 il tnote ha rotto intorno alle 14.30 il minimo precedente Pentothal | 15 mag : 19:24
Commenti: 1795

Utente 20 ago : 15:45
Replica a questo
Commento settimanale
European equities have continued in their relative outperformance and most equity indices have gained ground since two weeks ago.
GBP does not show any sign of strength and it is consolidating below a key resistance while bonds seems ready to start another leg down.

EQUITIES

DAX
The index has recovered back to 13K, well supported by its oscillator. So far the German benchmark has moved very much as expected and discussed in previous reports but given the strong rally and the stretched price action it is reasonable to expect a pull back in the coming days. Macro drivers continues to be supportive, with the JPY falling and bonds failing to recover the lost ground. Markets are now approaching the last part of the favourable seasonal period and this may limit the overall upside potential.

S&P 500
The S&P moved higher but less strongly than its European counterparts. While we may see some stabilisation soon, at the moment we have a clear support shelf at around 1650 and as long as we don’t make new lows the longer term picture is unchanged. To recap, the SPX has been tracing a large triangle pattern, which so far fits well with my conviction that we are trading in wave 4, ie a correction before the last leg up to complete the movement that started in 2016. At this stage potential objectives are the previous highs at 2900 and 3200. Round numbers (3000) tend for some reason to act as magnets and therefore the targets I mentioned seems meaningful to me from a technical analysis perspective.

FTSE MIB
The Italian index has suffered a mild setback after the news of a potential agreement between the two more “populist” parties in the country but the support offered by the old highs at 23800-24000 has never been challenged. If anything this confirms once again the limited impact of election related news on broad equity indices (see US after the Trump election for another stark example).
The medium term picture is therefore intact, with an open target at 25000 and the potential of even higher readings on the longer term given that we are now trading above a 10 year consolidation area (see previous reports for an analysis of the long term price implications).






FX

DXY
The Dollar has broken its first resistance area and it is fast approaching the first target I mentioned, set at 94. Given the prolonged bear move that we have witnessed throughout 2017 and the fact that we are now entering a less supportive phase for risky assets, it makes sense to re consider an allocation to the USD. In my opinion it would be better to trade single crosses rather than the basket since they offer clearer pictures with the JPY and GBP being the main candidates.

JPY
After a brief consolidation around 109 the JPY is moving fast towards its target at 111, totally confirming my previous analysis. As previously mentioned, a weaker JPY is also normally supportive for risky assets, making it a key driver to monitor going into the summer period.

GBP
After breaking the lower boundary of the channel that has sustained the entire advance after the Brexit bottom and the support area (now resistance) around 1.37, GBP has moved into a short term consolidation pattern. Its inability to stage any recovery does not bode well at all for sterling. This is also reinforced by the long term sell signal we mentioned at the end of April which points to a weak period ahead. Definitely an asset to avoid if you can.

RATES

Bund
The German futures has spent the last few weeks consolidating *below* its key resistance, unable to stage any recovery. The weekly oscillator has not turned down and this opens the door to further weakness, with the potential to see the Bund going back to 150. Wage negotiations in Germany points to much higher core inflation so the economic picture is very much in line with the price action.

US30Y
The long US bond is trading in line with its European counterpart and there are no signs of a change in the trend. This is another piece of the economic puzzle confirming the late cycle picture.
https://postimg.cc/gallery/pgq9p5ew/


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