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817 buono il dato della produzione industriale tedesca lucadrag \| 08 mag : 09:35
Commenti: 1643 Utente 10 nov : 10:04 Replica a questo	Patata bollente di Trump con Iran...meglio o peggio che aver a che fare con la NK?

817 buono il dato della produzione industriale tedesca Deus_ex_machina | 08 mag : 09:43

Commenti: 5148

Utente 26 lug : 16:46
Replica a questo

What will Trump decide on Iran later today? And how will Iran respond?

It's pretty much expected that Trump will announce that the US is set to leave the Iran deal later today, but the outcome of things is not as straightforward as it would seem. There are many potential scenarios that can still take place in the event of Trump deciding not to waive sanctions on Iran.

So, let's take a look at the possible outcomes:

Trump decides to stick with the deal and continues to waive sanctions on Iran
The unlikely scenario between the two outcomes. In doing so, Trump will allow himself to discuss with the EU to rectify flaws in the deal but without much leverage. If he does decide to go down this path and fail to get what he wants, we could revisit this crossroad again in a couple of months. The waiver on sanctions towards Iran's oil exports will send oil prices tumbling as the market is pretty much positioned for a no deal outcome. But risk assets should cheer the decision in the near-term.

Trump decides to leave the deal and doesn't waive sanctions on Iran
The likely outcome. But there's going to be a lot of different scenarios that could result from this. Do take note that if Trump decides not to waive sanctions on Iran, the repercussions will only kick into effect 180 days later. This is where things get a bit tricky.

If Trump decides on this, then it will mean that Iran will have to decide whether or not it will want to continue under the restrictions of its nuclear program. But the decision here will leave the EU in an awkward spot, as they would want to still carry on with the deal but now without the US part of it.

And this is where the 180 days buffer kicks in. Before those penalties are imposed, Trump could actually still reach an agreement with the EU and go through with renewed sanctions thereafter. I reckon this is likely the case, as I see no reason to not leave all doors open for the time being.

After that 180 days though, Trump may still leave the deal for good. But in the meantime, there's no reason why he should kill things off completely - unless he is firm on the decision to claim that Iran has been violating the deal.

Either way, expect a leave decision to be taken on as a firm stance by Trump to not renegotiate terms (unless he explicitly states he would reconsider). That should in effect help to give oil a knee-jerk boost, but with positioning already so favoured towards a deal we could see some "buy the rumour, sell the fact" play after the decision is announced.

Now we have those scenarios out of the way. How will Iran respond in such a case?

The real threat of Iran's retaliatory measures will come if the US withdraws from the deal, and the real risk in terms of geopolitical tensions will be Iran choosing to undermine US interests in the Middle East - in particular situations surrounding Syria and Iraq.

There is also the possibility of Iran leaving the Non-Proliferation Treaty, though this is extremely unlikely as that would leave them isolated from the rest of the world. The more likely option Iran would take is to ramp up its enrichment of uranium - under which is strictly limited under the current deal.

That will start to send some shockwaves especially if Iran starts to refine uranium to levels needed for a nuclear bomb.

But a lot of this will depend on how the EU responds as well. I reckon Iran won't be so rash so as to go against the US if the EU remains calm and collected on the matter. In some ways, although the EU is in the opposite camp to the US, it is actually helping to ease fears of what may happen should the US leave the deal.

Regardless, whatever it is, the fact remains that Trump deciding to leave the Iran deal isn't going to be a straightforward outcome or predicament for markets as there is plenty of possible scenarios that can happen still.

817 buono il dato della produzione industriale tedesca maninblack \| 08 mag : 09:57
Commenti: 3470 Utente 31 dic : 16:18 Replica a questo	Più guardo il grafico del 10Y USA e più mi sembra pronto per un bel balzo, ovvio nel medio periodo non certo tra una settimana.