News / Commenti / 910 bund tonte - dati macrto

Commenti

910 bund tonte - dati macrto Deus_ex_machina \| 23 apr : 09:31
Commenti: 5148 Utente 26 lug : 16:46 Replica a questo	Germany April flash manufacturing PMI 58.1 vs 57.5 expected Latest data released by Markit/BME - 23 April 2018 Prior 58.2 Services PMI 54.1 vs 53.7 expected Prior 53.9 Composite PMI 55.3 vs 54.8 expected Prior 55.1

Re: 910 bund tonte - dati macrto Deus_ex_machina \| 23 apr : 09:40
Commenti: 5148 Utente 26 lug : 16:46 Replica a questo	A beat on all fronts for Germany's preliminary figures. As mentioned earlier in the French figures, it's a much needed beat considering the poor run of form in Eurozone data. This will at least lead the ECB to believe that the poor start to the year is not going to continue further into Q2 - for now that is.

910 bund tonte - dati macrto had9000 \| 23 apr : 12:21
Commenti: 193 Utente 11 nov : 18:42 Replica a questo	http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX:$DET10Y

910 bund tonte - dati macrto Deus_ex_machina | 23 apr : 13:49

Commenti: 5148

Utente 26 lug : 16:46
Replica a questo

Germany's central bank releases its monthly report

- Q1 GDP growth noticeably lower than in previous quarters
- Manufacturing made minor contribution to Q1 GDP
- Strikes in metal and electrical industries likely to have played a role on low production levels
- Unusually strong flu epidemic has also dampened economic activity in other sectors
- Order situation in manufacturing is still very good

Still ever the optimist it seems. You have to wonder how much more of a slowing down in economic data will only start to change their view.

I reckon this will be a similar take by the ECB when they meet later this week.

910 bund tonte - dati macrto arvtrader \| 23 apr : 14:59
Commenti: 304 Utente 08 ott : 16:18 Replica a questo	Ciao, Antonio, come mai la scelta di 250 dotm? se anche la previsione si rivelera' giusta la possibilita di fare guadagno e' bassa, basta qualche giorno di laterale o leggero rialzo quelle put vanno a 0, la tua e' una strategia tipo quella di Taleb, come mai non hai preferito a parita' di esposizione qualcosa di meno otm? GRAZIE

Re: 910 bund tonte - dati macrto leonardopisano \| 23 apr : 15:40
Commenti: 298 Utente 07 dic : 09:19 Replica a questo	sono molto curioso anche io della risposta , me lo sto chiedendo da giovedì scorso come mai Antonio abbia scelto questo strike così basso

Re: 910 bund tonte - dati macrto Antonio Lengua \| 24 apr : 08:50
Commenti: 5235 Replica a questo	facendo qualche simulazione, ho visto che , in caso di discesa rapida e intensa (con quindi incremento della volatilità), il put molto OTM fa guadagnare piu del put meno OTM , ovviamente a parità di premio pagato (nel mio caso 20k euro). ammetto che la differenza non era enorme, pero' un po di differenza c'è.

Re: 910 bund tonte - dati macrto leonardopisano \| 24 apr : 09:17
Commenti: 298 Utente 07 dic : 09:19 Replica a questo	grazie della spiegazione Antonio , a me sembravano già molto out of the money le put 155.5 . Se ti aspetti una discesa profonda con relativo grande aumento della vola capisco la tua spiegazione .

Re: 910 bund tonte - dati macrto Antonio Lengua | 24 apr : 15:45

Commenti: 5235

Replica a questo

x metà giugno il bund potrebbe stare a 151
in tal caso, la strategia 153.5 put mi darebbe come utile 625k euro, contro 330k euro di un altro put , il 157, che avevo considerato come alternativa (con 55 lots di long put) : questo solo di intrinsec value , senza considerare il time value (che accresce ulteriormente il valore della 153.5 rispetto alla 157)
ho preferito massimizzare il numero id lotti perchè penso che il bund salira' verso l 1% di rendimento

Re: 910 bund tonte - dati macrto arvtrader \| 24 apr : 10:04
Commenti: 304 Utente 08 ott : 16:18 Replica a questo	Ciao, certo, se ti aspetti questo evento e' la scelta migliore, ovviamente e' ottimo se non se lo aspetta anche il market maker, altrimeti e' prezzato, e non mi pare, rimane la difficolta' del trade, il timing e' vitale, spero il meglio per te.

910 bund tonte - dati macrto Pentothal | 23 apr : 16:13

Commenti: 1795

Utente 20 ago : 15:45
Replica a questo

commento settimanale:
A slightly positive week for European equities while other indices are more mixed.
EQUITIES

DAX

The index completed a relatively positive week and it is now currently trading around the first resistance level at 12500-12600. The oscillator continues to trade in the overbought zone, which is medium term positive and other macro drivers (JPY, bund) are also supportive. If nothing changes on the macro level I believe European equities should move higher in the coming weeks.

S&P 500

The S&P has been more erratic last week, alternating a positive start with a weak ending of the period.
The head and shoulder pattern I mentioned last week is still intact and points to higher prices (2800) as long as we don’t move back below 2600.
The change in leadership I mentioned a couple weeks ago between US and European equities continues to hold and I think that at this stage selected areas in the EU should offer a better reward/risk ratio than their American counterparts.

PAN EUROPEAN BANKS

European banks have been moving sideways since early 2017, in a well-defined channel. We had a failed tentative to break above the highs in early January and a negative reaction that pushed prices back at the bottom of the rectangle more recently.
The positive environment for European stocks is evident also in this area and the oscillator is now supportive on the weekly timeframe while the long term picture (monthly) is also close to a buy signal.
While the picture at the sector level is positive but still directionless, some linked markets are showing potentially higher reward opportunities (see below)

FTSE MIB

The Italian benchmark is heavily skewed towards the banking sector, something that has depressed the index for years after the 2008 crisis.
Having said that, this may now be a positive factor, with the Mib being the strongest market in Europe.
The long term picture has not changed since the last time I mentioned this market: we have a textbook head and shoulder bottoming pattern, denoting accumulation and prices are now trading very close to the neckline which is also a secular resistance level.
The monthly oscillator is close to a buy signal, reinforcing the potential long term bullish picture.
Moving on to the lower timeframes, we can appreciate how the index has created a failed h&s pattern during the last 6 months, with a bear trap in March with prices gapping down below the short term neckline. The reaction has been very strong and in early April prices have created a wide gap followed by an almost linear ascent to retest the 25K key area.
Momentum is supportive on the weekly (bullish divergence) and daily basis (persistently overbought), creating a picture of overall strength.

MEDIOBANCA

Mediobanca is one of the most important Italian banks, basically the only high quality merchant bank in the country.
Its chart is almost the carbon copy of the Italian index, with prices that have already trading at or just above the key resistance area / neckline. The textbook pattern and the positive momentum picture make this stock a very good quality candidate to play the banking theme, with a clear value bias given the geographical basis.

FX

USDJPY

The cross has finally managed to move above its key resistance and we therefore have a green light from a macro perspective to add more risk exposure. I will keep my attention focused on this area given that the JPY has proved very useful so far this year in interpreting the risk sentiment.

BONDS

BUND

The Bund is another key macro indicator that has given a positive signal for risk assets. Last week we got both signals I was waiting for: a weekly bearish crossover in the oscillator and a negative weekly close. The inability to move back above 160 does not bode well for the German bond benchmark while higher rates should continue to fuel the banking rally.
https://postimg.cc/gallery/iwz4h2zy/

910 bund tonte - dati macrto frimba \| 23 apr : 18:35
Commenti: 4881 Utente 01 ago : 16:21 Replica a questo	dax hammerino sul daily ma mi sembra un trappolone,la classica candela che inganna,vediamo chiusura ma se non chiudiamo sopra i 610 resto ancora flat e anzi mi aspetto che domani(se chiudiamo sotto i 12600) quell hammer venga mangiato..

910 bund tonte - dati macrto Deus_ex_machina | 24 apr : 07:30

Commenti: 5148

Utente 26 lug : 16:46
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It's crunch time for EUR/USD

http://i68.tinypic.com/2ldf71k.jpg

The pair is now trading at 1.2208, after falling to a low of 1.2185 on the day. The range is still relatively subdued, but this is where things really start to heat up for both buyers and sellers.

At current levels, the pair still sits near the 100-day MA (red line) @ 1.2210 and the 8 February support level of 1.2212. At the moment, this is a crucial point of battle for both buyers and sellers. Here's why:

In the last two instances (November and December) the pair fell below the 100-day MA, it was held up by the long-term trendline support from April.

This time around, that support level has already been broken.

The only other key support level for the buyers right now below the 100-day MA is the 18 January low of 1.2165. It is a level that helped to stall the fall on 1 March, where the pair recorded a low of 1.2155.

The 1.2165 level is the floor of the trading range in the pair this year, and a break below the 100-day MA and the 1.2165 level opens up the way for more pain towards 1.2000 and possibly beyond.

While the dollar has only started to make strides over the past week, it is a timely one as euro sentiment is increasingly weaker due to disappointing economic data relative to last year.

And that could be enough to tip the pair over the edge this week and if positioning data is to go by, the pain here could just be the beginning.

Re: 910 bund tonte - dati macrto Deus_ex_machina \| 24 apr : 07:31
Commenti: 5148 Utente 26 lug : 16:46 Replica a questo	https://ibb.co/iQjhbx

910 bund tonte - dati macrto Deus_ex_machina | 24 apr : 07:34

Commenti: 5148

Utente 26 lug : 16:46
Replica a questo

Analysts are starting to believe that the euro's rally may have plateaued

The continuous miss on Eurozone economic data relative to expectations is starting to cause a rethink on euro longs. Particularly when the euro is now testing key support levels against the dollar - 100-day MA and the 8 February low of 1.2212.

https://ibb.co/hEccbx

Here is what some analysts are saying on the matter:

Oppenheimer Funds Inc. (Alessio de Longis, multi-asset money manager)
"We expect the dollar bear market to take a pause, in other words the euro bull market to take a pause"
European growth shows signs of faltering while Fed likely to tighten policy further
"We are right now much closer to a neutral stance in the euro versus the dollar, waiting on the sidelines"
"The risk is the ECB may not stop asset purchases in September and we may get another small extension of 10-15 billion euros after September"

Eurizon SLJ Capital Ltd (Neil Staines, portfolio manager)
EUR/USD could fall to as much as 6% in the next two months
Expects ECB to refrain from signaling policy shifts this week
ECB is to wait until its staff economic projections due in June before taking a fresh view
Euro will become increasingly vulnerable
"1.17-1.15 over the next couple of months is realistic initial target for EUR/USD"

Danske Bank (Christin Tuxen, chief FX analyst)
Shifts target of ECB rate hike from June to December 2019
Near-term target for EUR/USD of 1.21
But expects EUR/USD to recover toward 1.25 in the next six months