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ieei notte ho avuto febbrone e nausea
la febbre è passata, sto recuperando un po di energie
conto di tornare al desk nel pomeriggio | |
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 ko claint
| 09 mar : 11:33 | Commenti: 6091
Utente 20 gen : 15:11
Replica a questo | rimettiti presto antonio. per uanto riguarda il ns mk penso che il rialzo sopra 22600 in chiusura sia un rialzo che durera all'incirca 18-24 mesi quindi secondo me siamo all'inizio |
| | Re: ko ciacco
| 09 mar : 12:45 | Commenti: 2129
Utente 01 mar : 08:38
Replica a questo | che bello, siamo almeno in due a pensarla nel forum...mi sono preso del coglione anche stamane per averlo detto e scritto...
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| | ko claint
| 09 mar : 11:37 | Commenti: 6091
Utente 20 gen : 15:11
Replica a questo | x quanto riguarda america penso che livello 2050 di sp500 sia un buon supporto sotto si ritorna a 1970-1980 e si vedrà maggiormente effetto decoupling fra america ed europa |
| ko ape
| 09 mar : 11:53 | Commenti: 39
Utente 08 feb : 20:06
Replica a questo | non forzare uno due giorni di riposo non fanno male.
Angelo |
| ko claint
| 09 mar : 11:54 | Commenti: 6091
Utente 20 gen : 15:11
Replica a questo | le mie previsioni sono sempre sul medio lungo termine non contemplano scenari infraday un saluto a tutti |
| ko Gtrader
| 09 mar : 12:32 | Commenti: 861
Utente 29 ago : 11:44
Replica a questo | la bce compra titoli di stato tedeschi? Che affarone.
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| | Re: ko Celeste
| 09 mar : 14:59 | Commenti: 10112
Utente 14 lug : 17:33
Replica a questo | certo dovrebbe comprare quelli della Grecia, ma saremmo in un'altra storia... |
| | ko Pentothal
| 09 mar : 12:57 | Commenti: 1795
Utente 20 ago : 15:45
Replica a questo | influenza intestinale, e' in giro, vedrai che passa in un paio di giorni!! |
| ko Bruce_Banner
| 09 mar : 13:03 | Commenti: 5133
Utente 17 dic : 14:55
Replica a questo | ricordo che il nordamerica è passato all'ora solare questo WE quindi un ora indietro |
| ko frimba
| 09 mar : 13:31 | Commenti: 4881
Utente 01 ago : 16:21
Replica a questo | Antonio auguri di buona guarigione!!rimettiti presto!! |
| ko Pentothal
| 09 mar : 14:04 | Commenti: 1795
Utente 20 ago : 15:45
Replica a questo | gran bel pezzo di Russell Napier (ex CLSA) sull'impatto che gli exchenge controls avrebbero sull'industria dei fondi comuni. In inglese.
It is rare for this analyst to meet an investor who does not believe in financial repression. However, despite the uniform belief that such an era has already begun, almost no one seems concerned that the ultimate expression of financial repression will be in the form of exchange controls.
Everyone understands that inflation has to be created and interest rates artificially ‘repressed’ below the rate of inflation. If rates were not artificially repressed, market-determined interest rates would surely rise above inflation as investors priced in the erosion in the purchasing power of their fixed interest and principal repayments. In this scenario the cost of debt would rise rapidly, significantly hampering the ability of the authorities to reduce debt burdens.
Most investors can see how forced purchases of fixed-interest securities can be engineered under the guise of ‘macro prudential regulation’. So far so good, but how could you run a policy of financial repression without exchange controls? Could savers be forced to hold fixed-interest securities and bank deposits with negative real yields if they can move their capital offshore?
Our post WWII repression happened against a background of exchange controls which kept savings locked up in those jurisdictions where they were then forced into fixed-interest securities and deposits with negative real yields. If you want to shoot fish in a barrel, you first need to put them in that barrel. If you believe that ultimately debts will be inflated away through inflation, you have to believe that the imposition of exchange controls are thus highly probable.
There is, however one feature of the modern financial architecture which is particularly unsuited to this highly probable institutional change --- the mutual fund.
The United States had 73 mutual funds in 1945 with total assets under management of US$1.3bn and virtually all of these funds were invested in the US. As at the end of 2013 the US has 7,707 mutual funds with total assets under management of US$15,018bn.
Unlike any form of investment product which has come before it, the mutual fund requires liquidity in its underlying investments, because it offers every one of its investors the legal right to redeem. This is not a feature of the investment trust, the pension fund, the endowment policy, the life assurance policy or any other form of institutional investment product which preceded the mutual fund.
The mutual fund is the child of the growth in financial market liquidity which surged after the financial reforms of the early nineteen eighties. Globally, US$30,049bn of financial assets are held by mutual funds. We live in a world of very big numbers, but US$30,049bn is still a large number compared, say, to the world’s largest debt market --- the US$12,756bn US Treasury market.
Is this US$30trn savings industry well placed to cope with the dawning of the age of financial repression?
In the world of repression, savings are corralled, using exchange controls and other tools of macro-, prudential regulation, into fixed-interest securities. The idea is that nominal GDP growth outstrips the interest rate on those securities and that debt to GDP-ratios declines. This is clearly a world of less liquidity in financial markets as investors are simply not free to shift their funds from one asset class to another, but will find their savings locked up where they are most needed, in government debt securities.
This process is already very visible. An ever higher proportion of these securities are locked up by central bankers and by regulations imposed on commercial banks and pension funds. By locking up savings in these assets, the authorities depress liquidity in other assets as switching among asset classes is less possible.
The impact which financial repression has on liquidity is slow and inexorable, which make explain why it is ignored by the mutual fund industry. However, it ceases to be slow and inexorable, if we get a return of exchange controls. This is when the game changes, liquidity in key assets ends overnight and the real implications of financial repression become evident to those charged with providing daily liquidity to their clients.
The day that a country with large theoretically liquid securities markets imposes exchange controls, the less liquid future suddenly becomes the present.
Exchange controls were a feature of the post WWII period. Even in the United States de facto restrictions on the free movement of capital were imposed by the Interest Equalisation Tax and the actions of the Office of Foreign Direct Investment from 1963 until the end of the Bretton Woods agreement.
Exchange controls were lifted by the UK in 1979 and in France they were gradually lifted over the 1984-1989 period. So there is no clear date as to when exchange controls stopped being a feature of life for investors, and in some jurisdictions, such as China, South Africa, Cuba or North Korea, they never went away. Now they are back.
Since the Great Recession, restrictions on the free movement of capital have been imposed in Iceland, Cyrpus, Ghana, Nigeria, and Belarus. Such restrictions have not impinged upon the operation of the mutual fund industry as the industry does not hold material amounts of liquid assets in those countries. There will be a very different impact when such controls are imposed in jurisdictions where foreign investors do hold previously liquid domestic currency securities.
Malaysia’s imposition of exchange controls on September 1st 1998 forced mutual fund investors to liquidate the securities of other countries to meet redemptions. The value of financial assets held by US mutual funds has tripled since 1998. A sudden de-liquefaction of financial assets, due to the imposition of exchange controls in a market widely held by mutual funds, would rapidly force liquidation pressure onto other markets.
Regular readers of The Solid Ground Fortnightly will be aware that this analyst is particularly concerned about the approximate US$500bn of EM debt securities held by mutual funds. Should a country such as Turkey impose exchange controls, it is doubtful whether there would be sufficient liquidity in other EM debt markets to meet redemptions. This could cause redemption problems for these funds very quickly.
The old riddle goes --- “When is a door not a door? When it’s ajar.” For investors, a new riddle needs to be posed --- ‘When is a bond not a bond? When it’s a loan.’ An illiquid bond is a loan, and a loan should not be held in open-ended vehicles. The implications from such a de-liquefaction go well beyond negative returns for the holders of EM debt.
The last thing the world needs today is another spanner in the works of the global credit system. It is almost exactly seven years since the rescue of Bear Stearns and sixth months after that we had the collapse of Lehman Brothers. These events jammed the global credit system and we are still recovering from the consequences. We do not need a crisis of that magnitude to have the same dreadful impact on the world economy today.
Global nominal GDP growth is already low and falling. Central bank policy has been stretched to its limits as key interest rates turn negative. A sudden de-liquefaction of important credit markets through the imposition of exchange controls, bringing with it knock-on effects to other theoretically liquid debt markets, would almost certainly reduce nominal GDP growth even further. Investors would most probably scramble to hold the most liquid assets and this would put even further upward pressure on the USD. This is a combination which makes deflation even more likely than it is today, as there would be little or no faith in the ability of central bankers to provide a remedy.
So, if you believe in financial repression, prepare for the continuation of the inexorable and slow de-liquefaction of financial markets.
This de-liquefaction has important implications given that the biggest mutual fund in the US, with US$380bn in assets, is larger than the entire US mutual fund industry was in 1984. However, remember that at some stage in the financial repression process the re-imposition of exchange controls are very probable.
In that scenario there is a US$30trn suspect device sitting, primed and ticking, in the middle of the global financial system. In these days when consumers are forever demanding ‘more bang for their buck’ they might get a lot more than they bargained for and T.S. Eliot could be proved wrong --- it might end, not with a whimper, but a bang!
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| | Re: ko Celeste
| 09 mar : 15:20 | Commenti: 10112
Utente 14 lug : 17:33
Replica a questo | grazie, sono sempre interessanti le tue suggestioni |
| | ko Bruce_Banner
| 09 mar : 21:04 | Commenti: 5133
Utente 17 dic : 14:55
Replica a questo | Ragionando:
Il FIB sta giocando sotto la resistenza a 22590 da tempo ormai, una forte resistenza livello statico e nel breve anche dinamico
Ci sta giocando senza fretta, con volumi medio bassi, con vola direi normale o comunque con movimenti che non incutono timore...
Non sarà, mi chiedo, che si stanno accumulando un sacco di short li sotto? e che faranno saltare come un tappo il livello indicato?
Io di solito con gli scenari immaginari sono una schiappa, voi che ne pensate? |
| | Re: ko maninblack
| 09 mar : 21:08 | Commenti: 3470
Utente 31 dic : 16:18
Replica a questo | Se così fosse andrebbero a prendere prima gli stop e quindi un giretto sopra la farebbero. E credo che sia lo scenario più probabile poi si tratterà di vedere se il movimento, magari dopo un pullback, prosegue. |
| | | Re: ko Celeste
| 09 mar : 21:43 | Commenti: 10112
Utente 14 lug : 17:33
Replica a questo | al di là degli stops che possono saltare o meno io penso che il mercato, almeno quello che io posso leggere e ascoltare, dà x scontato che l'azionario europeo, in particolare quello italiano e magari qualche altro, nei prossimi 3-6 mesi farà faville. Allo stesso modo leggo e ascolto che gran parte di questo stesso mercato sta aspettando un rintracciamento x entrare a partecipare di queste favillle. Dando x scontato che le faville ci saranno, oltre quelle che che ci sono state, io credo che dovranno arrivare anche con la partecipazione di quelli che stanno aspettando. Chi è già dentro ovviamente fa bene a tenere, ma x chi è fuori, secondo me, meglio aspettare a sto punto |
| | ko Bruce_Banner
| 09 mar : 23:24 | Commenti: 5133
Utente 17 dic : 14:55
Replica a questo | gia, ma come sapete quando anche l'ultimo degli shortisti (o che aspetta il ritracciamento) si rassegna e si converte al rialzo allora il mercato crollerà... bisogna ragionare contrarian?
il fatto è anche che secondo me l'unico caso in cui la teoria contrarian non funziona è proprio quando si è in presenza di un forte mercato direzionale in trend e qui ne abbiamo uno
Sto anche pensando che forse lo storno lo fara si ma dopo e sarà quel pullback sui 22600 di cui parla anche Maninblack |
| ko igorlab
| 10 mar : 07:21 | Commenti: 1363
Utente 20 gen : 09:22
Replica a questo | buongiorno...la liquidità in cerca di alternative ai bonds sarà,in parte, riversata su equity credo...quindi di sicuro crolli improbabili saranno buy..ma io mi aspetto uno storno "consistente" |
| ko Bruce_Banner
| 10 mar : 12:42 | Commenti: 5133
Utente 17 dic : 14:55
Replica a questo | eccola la... la seconda che ho detto... quando anche l'ultimo dei pessimisti (cioè io!) comincia a convertirsi al long ecco che il mercato scende :-( |
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