leggo quest' analisi di UBS, e la trascrivo qui perchè mi pare un esempio notevole da commentare.
LINK https://twitter.com/Francesc_Forex/status/1131147490709913601

 

da UBS:
#USChinaTrade Deal: while we expect the process to be bumpy, we still believe a truce on trade is likely over the coming six months. We see three main potential scenarios.

1. An agreement over the next two months with an announcement at the #G20meeting in late June: This positive scenario could prompt a 5%–10% rally in #USequities & 10%-15% rise in #Chinesestocks, but we see only a 20% chance of this outcome. Such a rapid solution would require both sides to bridge the gap with significant concessions.
That looks unlikely given recent signals from the presidents of both nations.

2. A breakdown of trade talks: We assign this a 30% probability. We remain alert for signs that either side starts to calculate that the political benefits of a confrontational stance on trade outweigh the potential threat to economic growth. An escalation of US tariffs to include the remaining USD 300bn of Chinese goods not currently covered by punitive tariffs would entail significant economic downside for the US. This would include a host of goods  from smart phones to textiles – that the US would struggle to source from other countries. In this downside scenario we would expect #USequities to fall by 10%-15% & #Chinesestocks by 15%.

3. A bumpy road to a trade deal: We assign a 50% chance to this outcome, making it our base case. So far both sides have indicated a willingness to continue talks. While reaching agreement will not be easy, economic self-interest should still prevail. Financial market developments or changes in the economic outlook could affect the timeline and the pace of the negotiations. A significant market correction (15%–20%) or weakening in economic data could force one of the two sides to offer greater concessions. In the base case scenario we expect volatility to remain high and see 3%-7% upside for US equities and 5%-10% for Chinese stocks.

 

in pratica, sommando i casi:

1) breakdown, 30%, caduta del 10-15%
2) il resto : 70%, salita minima del 5-10, massima del 10-15%

 

che ne dite?