testo del discorso di draghi draghi è molto ottimista sulla crescita si dilunga sulla crescita salariale, che è arrivata a +1.9 in Q1 parla dell inflazione : The first is our own internal estimates of the distribution of future inflation outcomes. ECB staff have constructed a measure that combines the implied inflation distributions from a variety of sources – Eurosystem staff projections, model-based estimates, market-based measures of expectations and surveys such as the SPF. These sources are then weighted by their historical ability to accurately forecast inflation.
That aggregate probability distribution of two-year-ahead inflation expectations has evolved in three dimensions that provide confidence that inflation adjustment is sustainable. The mean of the distribution has increased, the dispersion of the distribution has narrowed, and the downward skew has declined. quindi usando vari modelli predittivi (ne cita 3 ), alla bce li pesano in base alla loro capacità storica di predire l inflazione. ne deriva una curva di probabilità con una media piu alta, con una dispersione dei dati piu stretta (le previsioni si allineano tutte, con un errore al ribasso ridotto) | 
