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1059 tnote e sullo spread tnote bund.

sul mio account twitter ho inserito un post sul tnote e sullo spread tnote bund.
eccolo :
 
ho preso come spunto la previsione di Citi sul rendimento del tnote e del bund : secondo loro il bund dovrebbe salire tra 25 a 40 bp. che in termini di prezzo equivale ad una discesa tra 25*15 e 40*15, ossia 375 e 600 ticks, con un target finale quindi tra 158 e 155.70 (partendo dall attuale prezzo del bund 161.70)
Inviato da Antonio Lengua il mar 09 gennaio 2018 - 11:01:35 | Leggi/Invia Commenti:2 |Stampa veloce
Commenti
1059 tnote e sullo spread tnote bund. Deus_ex_machina | 09 gen : 12:15
Commenti: 5148

Utente 26 lug : 16:46
Replica a questo
euro dollaro dopo rottura dei 1.1960-65 punta a 1.1850... è un driver forte per azionario europeo nel breve per fare un po di catch up con le performance americane...
sebbene Dax oggi sia un po piu indietro, ribadisco la possibilità di vedere i massimi nel giro di poco...

1059 tnote e sullo spread tnote bund. Pentothal | 09 gen : 12:38
Commenti: 1795

Utente 20 ago : 15:45
Replica a questo
Commento settimanale:
As this is the first report of 2018 I am going to review all major assets I have been discussing during 2017, covering equity indices, FX and commodities.

EQUITIES

The common factor in equities is a continuation of the strength we have witnessed more or less everywhere during 2017.

EUROSTOXX50

The European benchmark has continued to trade sideways during the Christmas period.
After retesting and briefly breaking its first support level, the index bounced in unison with other equity markets and went back to 3600.
Given the positive seasonality, I expect the index to have a positive start of 2018.
Having said that, European stocks would not be my first choice in terms of equity allocation. We are in a late cycle scenario and the best strategy in this case is to stay with the leaders (US, EM, Japan) rather than playing catch up.

DAX

The German index has confirmed its relative strength within the region during the Christmas period, having always traded above its support. As with all the other equity indices the DAX had a very strong first week of the year and it is now close to its previous peak. The German index is still my top pick within Europe and as long as the 12800-13000 level holds firmly the index should reach its first long term target at 14K soon.

Nikkei

The Nikkei started the year with a new high, opening with a gap up after the festivities. This move has concluded the very shallow December correction and has also given another buy signal on the weekly timeframe. If we look at the long term picture, the Japanese index has spent all of 2017 with the oscillator being monthly overbought, which as you know I consider a very bullish signal. The index has already reached its first long term target at 23K in November but, given the lack of any bearish/reversal signal on any meaningful timeframe, it is time to consider the possibility that the Nikkei will reach the extension target I showed you in the past, set between 28500 and 31000.
What I found really interesting is that Japanese stocks are moving up while the Yen is very stable, contrary to what we have been used to when the local market was trading in its multi decade secular bear market. This makes the market easier to invest also for retail investors and may help to keep the positive tailwind intact. We have a stable political situation, positive and growing earnings and a decent relative valuation vis a vis other equity markets. All these factors should support the equity market and I expect most strategists to push for including this asset in client portfolios once again.

S&P 500

The S&P continues in its relentless linear ascent, posting a new all-time high in the first week of 2018. Price is now touching the upper boundary of the channel that has contained price action since the 2016 bottom but there are no signs of a change in trend.
The US index went through its first target at 2500 in September and it has moved another 250 points since. As in the case of the Nikkei, it is now time to consider the possibility that the S&P reaches its extension target which situated in the area between 3050-3250. This would imply a minimum increase of around of 10% from current levels, something truly remarkable after the performance the index posted in 2017.
My central scenario has not changed, ie I do expect equities to rollover sometime this year, most probably in the second half. If my expectation is correct, this would imply a 2000 like scenario, where we saw an acceleration of most equity indices during the first quarter, that was retraced in the remaining part of the year.
No matter what the future holds, the S&P is still in an intact uptrend and there is no (technical) reason to start selling.

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS (EEM)

The emerging market index has gone through its key resistance area after only a minor sideway correction. At the moment we have dollar weakness, a strong global economy (which is pushing commodities up), emerging market growth outperforming developed markets; These are all factors that support EM performance. Valuation is also supportive, given that EM equities trade in the middle of their long term band (not shown).
Bottom line: there are no signs of a change in the macro drivers nor in the price action, we therefore have an intact bullish picture for this area in the first quarter of 2018.






FX

The common factor in currencies is a lack of signals. This is because most major FX are stuck between important long term levels and have given no relevant technical indications.

DXY

The dollar index continues its downtrend, only briefly interrupted by a rebound in early Q4. The index is now retesting its key support area between 91 and 92 and at the moment there are no signs of the direction the basket may take in 2018. Different dollar pairs have had different behaviour lately; in my opinion the best way to address this is to have a view on single pairs instead of the dollar per se.

EURUSD

Given its weight in the dollar index, the Euro is almost a mirror image of DXY. The European currency has now retested its long term resistance area that sits between 1,21 and 1,25.
The uptrend that we have witnessed in 2017 is quite mature but does not look complete yet. We may see further upside before a significant correction takes place. As in the case of DXY we have no evident signs of where this pair may go in the short term and only a move below 1,1550 would give us an indication that the trend has turned.

GBPUSD

Sterling is still trading between the key support and secular resistance areas we discussed many times in the past. As long as 1,33 is not broken on the downside, we should expect a second test of 1,37 which is the lower boundary of the secular resistance area that was penetrated after the Brexit referendum. Given its proximity and its importance, it will take a significant event to put GBP on a strong long term footing. At the moment, as in the case of DXY and EURUSD, there are no hints of where this pair will go in 2018.





COMMODITIES

While base metals and the energy complex had a strong 2017, agricultural commodities and precious metals had a weak or/and trendless 2017. This has started to change, at least for precious metals, during December.

COPPER

Copper broke its key resistance level set at 3 during the summer and has tested it twice since. This strong recovery means that the industrial metal is now trading back in the area where it had moved since 2006. This key level has been violated briefly in 2007 and then more importantly during 2008 and during the Chinese induced weakness that hit all commodities in 2015/2016. Commodities tend to perform strongly during the last phases of the economic cycle and this time is no different.
GOLD

Every year since 2015 we have experienced a strong start in gold and 2018 is no different. The precious metal moved swiftly from 1245 to 1320 in what may be the beginning of a more important trend. Given the number of false signals we have seen in the last few years, I am more inclined to wait for gold to move above 1340/1350 before taking a large position. Years of basing have created a massive head and shoulder bottom, an almost textbook pattern that if activated should propel the precious metals to much higher levels as per the monthly chart below. From a macro perspective if my expectations are correct 2018 may offer us an amazing opportunity to use gold as a hedge to equity volatility or as a standalone performance driver. In this scenario gold mining stocks should be the best performing sector by far, like they were (briefly) in 2016.
https://postimg.org/gallery/g7sh0946/


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