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1551 Queste dichiarazioni di bullard - fed- hanno spinto al rialzo il tnote, e quindi anche tutti i bonds europei

Queste dichiarazioni di bullard - fed- hanno spinto al rialzo il tnote, e quindi anche tutti i bonds europei
 
Bullard speaks with reporters: Dec hike may drive inflation further below target
Inviato da Antonio Lengua il mar 14 novembre 2017 - 15:51:59 | Leggi/Invia Commenti:2 |Stampa veloce
Commenti
1551 Queste dichiarazioni di bullard - fed- hanno spinto al rialzo il tnote, e quindi anche tutti i Pentothal | 14 nov : 16:16
Commenti: 1795

Utente 20 ago : 15:45
Replica a questo
commento settimanale:
Significant correction in European and Japanese equities, while US indices are almost unchanged. Commodities continue to move up, while yields are range bound.

EQUITIES

NIKKEI

Last time I commented about a lack of any signs of a correction in the Nikkei. This week the index reached the target I have been monitoring (23K) and swiftly corrected, posting a weekly shooting star candle as highlighted in the chart. A shooting star is a typical sign of exhaustion, where price overshoots but the rise is not sustainable and so it immediately turns down.
At the moment in this market we have:
- A 5 wave movement that can be considered completed at various levels of trend. We can infact count 5 waves from June 2016 but also 5 larger waves from March 2009
- The target I identified has now been reached
- A clear weekly reversal candle
There is no way we can be sure that this is *the top* in this market and I wouldn’t be surprised if we actually correct more in November and then move to a higher high in early 2018. Having said that, given the signals I discussed and the very significant advance (20%) we have witnessed since late summer, I am happy to take partial profits and use a trailing stop to cover the rest of my exposure in Japan.

DAX

We have a very similar picture in Germany, where the index has reached the target we identified and has then posted a reversal signal.
In this case the signal is called a bearish engulfing candle, where the index moved above previous week high and then fell to close below the previous week low.
Having said that and contrary to the Nikkei, we can argue that the 5 waves move from early 2016 is not complete and therefore it make sense to expect price to move higher after this correction. Taking a partial profit makes sense but I am more inclined to give some leeway to the DAX in this instance.



EUROSTOXX50

The European benchmark corrected in line with the above indices and moved down to 3520 touching the higher boundary of the area I identified as key support. Given the importance of this level as discussed many times during the summer, it is important for the Eurostoxx not to close below this level on a weekly basis.

S&P500

The S&P has been basically untouched by the negative performance of the European and Japanese indices.
The correction is almost invisible on a weekly chart and even the daily timeframe only shows a test of an (higher) and minor level. Short term support is therefore now moved up from 2540 to 2560. As said many times before, as long as these supports are not broken, the trend continues to be up. Given the extremely strong bull phase that started in early 2016 and its linear advance, it would be reasonable to take some partial profits if the above levels are violated. Having said that, the first real significant support is at 2480 and at the moment there are no signs of a change in the main trend of this index.


CURRENCIES

GBPUSD

GBP continues to be one of the most discussed assets given the recent political events surrounding the UK government and its stability. Having said that, so far the FX has been remarkably resilient vs USD and the key support shelf at 1,305/1,31 continues to hold. I have discussed at length the short and long term picture of this cross last week and I have nothing to add in that respect. We just need to remember that the more a level is tested, the more important it becomes. Therefore at this point in time if we see a weekly close below support we need to consider it as a significant development.


EURGBP
While both the EUR and the GBP have been weak vs USD in the recent past, the EURGBP cross has been very stable. The support level at 0.88 which has been identified back in the summer is still holding and the cross continues to move sideways in the middle of this long congestion area between 0.92 and 0.84

COMMODITIES

CCI
Back in October I was showing how commodities were well supported and had created a clean head and shoulder pattern that was supportive of further strength. While precious metals have been going nowhere, oil continues to move higher (not shown) and given its importance as a key component of the commodity basket, it has pushed the main benchmark up. This fits very well with a late cycle scenario, where commodities have always had a positive performance when the economic cycle was moving towards its end.
http://tinypic.com/r/2hs3joh/9
http://tinypic.com/r/a5gdg8/9
http://tinypic.com/r/u8w9u/9
http://tinypic.com/r/21ll5bl/9
http://tinypic.com/r/2u42fc5/9
http://tinypic.com/r/2rorqdc/9
http://tinypic.com/r/m8lowh/9

1551 Queste dichiarazioni di bullard - fed- hanno spinto al rialzo il tnote, e quindi anche tutti i Deus_ex_machina | 14 nov : 16:48
Commenti: 5148

Utente 26 lug : 16:46
Replica a questo
si riparte col secchiello... tanta italia nel secchiello.


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