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909 mercati obbligazionari forti

stamattina avremo i CPI europei di ottobre definitivi.
dopo la delusione dei CPI tedeschi di ieri, i CPI francesi sono in linea col previsto, e addirittura piou alti sul dato nazionale (1.1)

France CPI EU Harmonized (Y/Y) Oct P: 1.20% (est 1.20%; prev 1.10%)
-CPI EU Harmonized (M/M) Oct P: 0.10% (est 0.10%; prev -0.20%)


France CPI (Y/Y) Oct P: 1.10% (est 1.00%; prev 1.00%)
-CPI (M/M) Oct P: 0.10% (est 0.10%; prev -0.20%)

la crescita francese del terzo trimestre è stata 0.5% : la francia avrà alla fine dell anno una crescita dell 1.8%, la piu alta dal 2011.
 
alle 11 esce il CPI eurozona.
============

Il BUND continua ad essere ben supportato. Stamattina sta trattando sopra i massimi di ieri (ora 162.78). Sono livelli che , sul contratto di dicembre, ha trattato pochissimo, quindi ci sono poche resistenze.

Il tnote ha rotto ieri al ribasso il rendimento del 2,40 e rende ora 2,365.
Ricordo che 2,40 era uno spartiacque importante, quindi questa rottura al ribasso potrebbe puntare a rendimenti ancora inferiori, tipo 2.31 e 2.275.
vedremo nei due-tre prossimi giorni (con tanti dati macro in uscita, decisioni FOMC , nomina del presidente FED - atteso per giovedi) se questa rottura al ribasso del 2,40 è vera o falsa.

Inviato da Antonio Lengua il mar 31 ottobre 2017 - 09:09:29 | Leggi/Invia Commenti:2 |Stampa veloce
Commenti
909 mercati obbligazionari forti Pentothal | 31 ott : 10:03
Commenti: 1795

Utente 20 ago : 15:45
Replica a questo
Commento settimanale:
Another positive week for Equities, while the USD confirms the signals we discussed last week.

EQUITIES

NIKKEI

The Japanese benchmark had another positive week and it is fast approaching its 23000 target, with the weekly oscillator still supportive and no apparent signs of weakness. Price action in the last 2 weeks has been very strong and the Nikkei is now outperforming the S&P500 (not shown).

DAX

The German index posted a strong week, pushing prices above the short term consolidation that has characterised most European indices in the last period.
Back in mid-September I identified two potential targets for the DAX to reach before year end, the first one being 13200-13500, and the second 14000-14200. The index has now reached its first objective and, given that there are no signs of reversals, it may well continue towards the higher objective. As in the case of the Nikkei, there is another extremely bullish target that implies that the index goes up to test the upper side of the channel that has contained price action since the bottom in 2009. This target is somewhere in the 17500-18500 area but at the moment I personally think it is a bit far-fetched. I recently came across some ultra bullish analysis of the equity market where the analyst expects this bull market to end into a parabolic rise, similar to what happened to the Nasdaq in 2000 and to the Shanghai Index more recently. In my experience there is no way to know if something like this can happen, but if it does then the upper targets I mentioned should definitely be reached.

IBEX35

As we all know, one of the best place to look for opportunities is where there is plenty of bad news and surely the Catalan crisis qualifies well in this respect.
The IBEX monthly chart is similar to the Italian one, with a long term bottom formation (reverse head and shoulder) starting in 2009. The neckline of the pattern passes at 12K and connects the 2009 and 2015 market tops.
As for most European indices, the IBEX has been drifting down since May in a well-defined channel. The weekly chart shows a clear hammer candle a month ago, when the Catalan situation started to heat up and sideways price action since then. Today the market has opened up strongly with price finally breaking the bearish trendline. The weekly oscillator is also supportive, with a bullish divergence in place and the indicator pointing up but in order to confirm this positive signal we definitely need the market to close above its bearish channel. The first clear target is 11600, where we also have the long term neckline mentioned above. So far this year contrarian calls linked to political instability have paid off handsomely (France, Japan,Korea etc) so this may be another opportunity. A close below 9840 (the hammer low) would invalidate the pattern.

NASDAQ100

The Nasdaq closed last week with a powerful up day, pushing prices away from the most immediate support, maintaining an intact uptrend.
Once again the market corrected slightly, retested previous resistance (now support) at 6000 and moved up from there. If you have been reading my commentary on the US indices you remember how many times I have pointed out this very simple but powerful concept which is key to charting and classic technical analysis. As long as this process of break/retest/move up continues, there is no need to do anything at all.

CURRENCIES

DXY
Last week the Dollar has given the bullish signal I was expecting, with a clear break of the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern I showed here. The main target remains 97, which is also the 50% retracement of the bear trend we have seen in 2017. At this stage as long as price does not move below 92.40-92.60 the pattern is active and the trend is up.
USDSEK
USDSEK has been leading the other crosses and has posted a very significant up week, immediately reaching the intermediate target I discussed (8.35). At this stage the primary objective of the move remains 8.50, as long as price does not go back below 8.20.

http://tinypic.com/r/21loqk9/9
http://tinypic.com/r/20atkm0/9
http://tinypic.com/r/33tgf3a/9
http://tinypic.com/r/2l9inhe/9
http://tinypic.com/r/3163dp5/9
http://tinypic.com/r/2998hl/9
http://tinypic.com/r/x4nfj5/9
http://tinypic.com/r/5vdmpi/9

909 mercati obbligazionari forti maninblack | 31 ott : 15:46
Commenti: 3470

Utente 31 dic : 16:18
Replica a questo
Se oggi non ci fosse ENI a tenere il listino in positivo, il nostro fibbone sarebbe rosso sangue.


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