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| | 1632 possibile un rimbalzo di breve | | | |
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i chart puntano tutti a sud, è piuttosto evidente..
tuttavia nel breve potremmo aver trovato una base, e tentare un rimbalzo.
che poi questo rimbalzo di breve si tramuti in qualcosa di piu, non so dire.
stamattina, mentre ero a fisioterapia, a 9059 di dax ho chiuso un po di short che avevo a hedge sul fib (hedge che ha funzionato solo parzialmente visto che il fib è scso mlt di piu) : cmq solo per indicare che qs area di dax 8900/9000 per me è un area di sicuro interesse per long.
per il fib : difficile digerire questa botta del Pil, la divergenza tra quello che appare la crescita reale e lo 0.80 indicato dal governo è circa 6/8bn in piu da trovare. di per sè non sono cifre mostruose, ma quello che manca è un sentiero di crescita : non l abbiamo proprio ancora trovato!! e il fib viene penalizzato.. un po come è sempre stato, con l unica finestra eccezionale il periodo gennario/giugno di quest anno. La speranza è che , con qs dati, la voglia di rottamazione di renzi ne esca rafforzata e che si sblocchino senza reticenze le riforme di cui abbiamo infinitamente bisogno.
la spagna, che in 2 anni, è stata in grado di mettere a posto molte cose all interno, viaggia con tassi di crescito dello 0.50% PIl 2Q..
domani c'è la Bce con draghi. cosa dirà ? i mercati non si aspettano niente di particolare.
ci sono degli argomenti che sono ancora fumosi, come gl acquisti di ABS, prima forma di QE all europea : draghi potrebbe dare qualche dettaglio in piu, delle tempistiche, su come intende procedere.
le attese sono cmq molto basse
potrebbe anche parlare dell AQR e degli stress test.
centrale sarà il commento sulla crescita europea, che nell ultimo mese (dalla produz industr di giugno uscita a metà luglio ai dati piu recenti come quelli tedeschi di stamattina, per non parlare del gdp italiano) indicano un chiaro rallentamento.Draghi potrebbe anche spiegare la divergenza tra i dati hard deludenti e le survey (che invece puntano ad un economia in crescita piu forte).
per oggi stacco, arrivederci a domani | |
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 1632 possibile un rimbalzo di breve Pentothal
| 06 ago : 23:15 | Commenti: 1795
Utente 20 ago : 15:45
Replica a questo | Commento su tutti i mercati principali qua sotto come promesso oggi. E' in inglese (un po' frettoloso) , ma facilmente comprensibile. Se non capite, chiedete!
S&P500
The monthly chart shows that we have now reached our time window for the 7 year top cycle. Other cycle techniques point to last week as a potential time window for a long term top, reinforcing the long term analysis.
In the weekly chart we have 1900 as a key level for this market. We have the confluence of a clear horizontal support + the trendline that has supported the move from the lows in 2011 + the 200days moving average . A break of this level would signify that the uptrend that started in 2011 is now complete.
Independently of whether you believe we are in a new bull market or not, the first real support for the index is 1550-1600, where you have the previous highs (2000/07) and the 38.2% retracement of the 2011-2014 up move.
Breadth is deteriorating and has never managed to move above the May 2013 high. Small caps continue to underperform, and so far there is no sign of this trend reversing.
If you take all of the information discussed above and you add sentiment (very bullish), IPO activity (has been very high in Q1, with very poor quality), M&A activity (booming, but showing the first sign of abating), volatility (all time low across all/most asset classes), you have all the typical sign of a major top.
Eurostoxx50
The monthly chart shows a classic topping set up: a positive candle in May, followed by a shooting star (reversal) in June and by a red candle in July. This combination is called evening star and is a long term reversal setup.
The weekly chart shows how we are right at support level (2950-3050) together with a bearish MACD divergence. A break of this level wold point to the immediately lower support level at 2850 and possibly a lower support at 2550.
Breadth is deteriorating and has never recovered the late 2013 highs. Small caps are underperforming large caps but not as much as in the US.
FTSE100
The monthly chart shows a failure to break the long term resistance level at 7000.
In the weekly chart we can appreciate how the move from the june 2013 lows has taken the shape of a rising triangle, where the lower boundary is being tested right now.
Bearish MACD divergence increases the probability of a break of this support level, with a first target on the downside at 6000.
Breadth has deteriorated very significantly since May 2013 , especially in comparison with the other markets. Small caps have just started to underperform but with the former outperforming the latter by about 70% since 2009, there is much more space for underperformance going forward.
Nikkei
From the monthly chart we can easily understand the importance of horizontal support at 14000.
The weekly chart shows a head and shoulder pattern forming (bearish) which points to a retest of the 2010 top at 11300 if the neckline is violated.
During the last 3 weeks we had the same pattern that I noticed on the S&P (evening star, reversal pattern), reinforcing the probability of a retest of support at 14k
Breadth is very weak, volume is insignificant while small caps are performing better than large cap. I am not very convinced by this last factor (small caps), I do believe that we had a top in the small vs large cap trend between 2011 and 2013. The main factor may be the stark underperformance of banks relative to the broad index.
MSCI EM
The monthly chart is very inconclusive. We are in a congestion and on a long term basis we have no indication on where this index can go.
The weekly chart shows a deterioration in momentum , together with a retest of a very strong resistance level at 1050. Not a very bullish picture but one of the very few markets where the trend is still intact.
Euro
Between March and April the EUR has traced a double top, now confirmed by the break of horizontal and trendline support at 1,35. The first initial target is 1,30 but if we look at the monthly chart we can appreciate that the long term support levels are 1.20 and parity. Given the “rounding top” pattern created during the last 10 years, my inclination is that we are about to enter into a long term bear market for the currency vs USD.
Sterling
In the monthly chart we can see how we just reached the middle of the channel that has contained price action in the last 30 years (1.72). long term MACD has a bearish divergence set up and the weekly chart shows that we have just broken the support line on the downside. Immediate downside target at 1.63 but this may well be the beginning of a much longer move relative to the dollar. We have support at 1.50 but the real area of long term support is 1.40.
Dollar index
In June we have finally broken the downside trend in the dollar index that started in the middle of 2013. Both the weekly and monthly MACD support bullish divergences and price action is very strong on the upside. First upside target at 85 but much higher levels are possible in the coming months if we have correctly identified the beginning of a new secular bull market.
JPYUSD
The weekly chart shows how , similarly to the Nikkei, we are just above important support. At the moment there is no signal one way or another .
Gold
we have bullish macd setup and a clear reversal head and shoulder pattern on the daily chart . Today we have broken above the falling wedge that formed the right shoulder, another unequivocally bullish sign.
My opinion is that we are in a correction in a bear market but this correction may push prices to 1450 and even 1620 in the coming months
WTI
market congested. I find very interesting that we have tested the trendline that has supported prices since mid 2012 and have not broken it. As long as we stay above it, the market is pointing up. Possible targets are 110 and, if we finally manage to break resistance at that level, we have 120 and 150 as possible targets.
CCI
As per the gold commentary, I think we are in a correction in a bear market. We may have actually completed a wave b (a sideway move) after the sharp drop from june 11 to june 12
A break of 500 would confirm that and would point to much lower levels (400 and 350-300).
US10Y
The current consolidation is taking the shape of a falling wedge, a reversal pattern. A break on the upside (above 2.68) would signal that we have entered the last wave up of the movement that started in mid 2012. A failure to hold 2.4 on the other side would mean that the pattern is already completed and would point to 2% as initial and most obvious target. We need to monitor this market closely. |
| 1632 possibile un rimbalzo di breve Bruce_Banner
| 06 ago : 23:24 | Commenti: 5133
Utente 17 dic : 14:55
Replica a questo | Grazie Pentothal, sempre molto ben accetti i tuoi interventi, Grazie ancora |
| | Re: 1632 possibile un rimbalzo di breve Pentothal
| 07 ago : 09:33 | Commenti: 1795
Utente 20 ago : 15:45
Replica a questo | ci mancherebbe! |
| | 1632 possibile un rimbalzo di breve leonardopisano
| 07 ago : 13:56 | Commenti: 298
Utente 07 dic : 09:19
Replica a questo | Grunf che come dice in uno dei primi 10 numeri aveva americanizzato e trasformato il suo nome dal tedesco , infatti si chiamava Grunt !
Complimenti all' estimatore del gruppo TNT e soprattutto a Pentothal per la bella analisi
Ad Antonio i complimenti per il bellissimo sito e le sue preziose analisi andrebbero fatti ogni giorno (Y)
Grazie a tutti voi ragazzi , leggervi mi arricchisce
lp |
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